This year’s Orioles draft setup feels a lot different from the one they walked into a year ago.
Back then, Baltimore showed up with four of the top 37 picks and the biggest bonus pool any club had seen since the system began in 2012. That made for a lively opening day, even though the big league season was already heading in the wrong direction.
This time, the mood is heavier. The major league club has kept sliding into 2026, and the excitement around adding more young talent is harder to sell when so many of the team’s most hyped players - former high picks and big bonus signings among them - are part of the problem.
The Orioles also no longer have the same draft ammo they had on paper. They went into this draft with the No. 7 pick, which is still a strong position, but it came after they had the fourth-best lottery odds and dropped to seventh.
They were also supposed to pick at No. 33 in Competitive Balance Round A, but that selection went to the Rays in the Shane Baz deal. So Baltimore’s next pick after No. 7 doesn’t come until No. 46, and there are no extra picks to soften the blow.
That matters because the draft is a long game, not a quick fix. College players usually are not the kind of help you can count on right away, and even they are often more of a “maybe we can add this guy in the second half of 2028” proposition. High school players generally take even longer, unless one of them is an obvious outlier.
By the time 2030 rolls around, the Orioles will look very different. Pete Alonso will be in the final year of his five-year contract.
Adley Rutschman and Gunnar Henderson will already be free agents. Colton Cowser and Jordan Westburg are also set to reach free agency before then.
Beyond Alonso, the only players whose contracts are guaranteed into 2030 are Samuel Basallo and Baz.
None of that guarantees the player Baltimore drafts today will still be here later. He might not develop.
He might get traded. The Orioles could move one or more of these picks as soon as this offseason if they decide an immediate upgrade matters more than whatever future upside the draft class might bring.
And even that immediate help may not work out the way Elias, or whoever follows him, hopes it will.
The first day of the draft is set for Saturday, July 11, and the league has shifted it from its usual Sunday slot. There’s another wrinkle this year, too: the first ten picks will be on a different streamer than the rest of the draft. The listed 1 p.m. start is for the preview show, not the actual picks, so the exact moment the draft begins is unclear.
Baltimore’s No. 7 selection should come near the end of the Peacock portion, which is scheduled through 2:30. The Orioles will not pick during the MLB Network window, which runs from 2:30 to 4:30.
Day 1 is scheduled to run through 7:45 Eastern. Day 2 follows on Sunday, July 12.
Here is where the Orioles stand in the early rounds: No. 7 overall with a slot value of $7,327,200; No. 46 overall at $2,181,600; No. 82 overall at $1,003,800; and No. 110 overall at $711,800. Their total bonus pool is $13,114,000, which ranks 13th in the draft. Losing the pick sent to Tampa Bay cost them about $3 million from that pool.
Teams are not bound to spend exactly at each slot. The money is pooled across the draft, and clubs can go over or under on individual picks as long as the total stays within the limit.
In rounds 11 through 20, the first $150,000 of any signing bonus does not count against the pool. A team can also go up to 5% over its pool, with a 75% tax on the overage, which would give the Orioles room to exceed the pool by as much as $655,700.
As for who might be there when Baltimore goes on the clock, the latest mock drafts have already pushed Booth and Flora off the board before the Orioles’ turn. Grindlinger was a late riser.
Last year, the final mock drafts didn’t correctly forecast any of Baltimore’s actual picks, but with the Orioles sitting at No. 7 this time, there are fewer ways for the board to break before they make their choice. The real answer comes down to who is still available when Mike Elias steps up and who he decides to take.
In Other News...
Orioles Make Troubling Pitching Move As Keegan Akin Situation Deepens
The Orioles added another arm to the organization on Monday, acquiring right-hander Cam Sanders from the Pirates for cash considerations and sending him to Triple-A Norfolk. Sanders had been designated for assignment by Pittsburgh, and Baltimore is giving itself a little extra depth in the system at a time when the pitching staff is getting stretched.
The more pressing issue is Keegan Akin, who was moved to the 60-day injured list because of an elbow injury. He is scheduled for a medical evaluation that will help determine the next step, and for an Orioles club already trying to manage its pitching depth, the situation adds another layer of uncertainty to a bullpen that could use some stability. [Read more 🡒]
Orioles Writer Just Put A Stunning Timeline On Samuel Basallo
Samuel Basallo has given the Orioles plenty to dream on already, and the appeal is obvious every time the 21-year-old catcher gets into one of his power swings. He has 16 home runs in 301 plate appearances, and his advanced power numbers back up what the eye test says: when he connects, the ball leaves in a hurry. Basallo has also talked openly about wanting to become an All-Star someday, which fits the way the organization has started to view him as more than just a promising bat.
The next step is less about raw talent than about the everyday grind that comes with becoming a lineup fixture. Basallo is still working through pitch selection and the defensive side of the position, but the trust around him is growing as he keeps showing he can handle bigger moments. Baltimore does not need to decide his ceiling right now, only whether his recent surge is the start of something much larger, and that is where the intrigue really begins. [Read more 🡒]
Orioles Fans Have Seen This Mike Elias Pattern Far Too Often
For Orioles fans, the frustration is starting to feel familiar in a way that is hard to ignore. Since Mike Elias took over in 2019, Baltimore has too often been stuck in the same place at the same point on the calendar, rarely above .500 by the 95-game mark and usually hanging near the bottom of the AL East while the rest of the division pulls away.
The larger concern is not just where this season sits now, but how closely it fits the pattern that has followed Elias from the start. Baltimore has not finished a year with more than 78 wins under his watch, and even with the organization trying to build around a young core, the margin for error keeps shrinking as injuries pile up and the standings tighten. [Read more 🡒]