The Orioles’ deadline might come down to something bigger than the standings, because nothing about this team has been simple for months.
Yes, the record matters. So does the playoff picture.
But if you’re trying to figure out what president of baseball operations Mike Elias is going to do before the Aug. 3 deadline, those alone don’t tell the whole story. The last four months have left enough evidence to justify a move in almost any direction, which is why the final answer should bring some relief when it arrives around 6 p.m.
Monday.
One place to start is the roster itself, because Baltimore still has to help itself before it can decide whether to buy or sell. The Orioles have been plenty creative with their lineups, especially against opposing starters, but that flexibility has also come with a kind of stiffness.
Jackson Holliday has handled lefties well this year and has a .986 OPS since the break, which makes a strong case for him to be in the lineup every day. Colton Cowser has been worse against lefties than Leody Taveras, but his defense in center field helps balance that out.
Gunnar Henderson, meanwhile, has stayed near the top of the order even while carrying an 84 wRC+ since May 1, a mark that ranks 167th out of 199 players with 200 plate appearances in that span. Manager Craig Albernaz has every reason to keep trusting him there, and that bet could still pay off.
Still, the bigger point is hard to miss: Baltimore needs some kind of spark if it’s going to avoid selling. If the Orioles do add another bat, that only makes the lineup puzzle more crowded.
Health may be the other major force shaping this decision. Orioles control person David Rubenstein pointed to injuries last week as part of the explanation for the team’s underperformance, and that may matter even more over the next two months than it has so far.
The Orioles went 4-5 over their last nine games without both Adley Rutschman and Samuel Basallo, and their catchers combined to go 2-for-35. In three extra-inning games, the margins were so thin that it’s easy to imagine either hitter making a difference.
If Rutschman and Basallo are out much longer, the standings may not matter much at all. The same goes for how long Blaze Alexander and Ryan Helsley are sidelined.
This isn’t a juggernaut even at full strength, and only the Orioles know when those players are coming back. If the roster is too compromised without them, the deadline decision could end up being made for them.
There’s also the issue of the farm system, and that one is unavoidable. The Orioles are going to have to trade prospects at some point, if only because they’ve been managing Rule 5 risk for years and that pressure isn’t going away.
Their 2023 deal for Cole Irvin, which sent Darell Hernaiz to the Athletics, was an early sign of the approach. Hernaiz had broken out in the minors but was a year from Rule 5 eligibility, so Baltimore moved him before it had to protect him.
The same logic showed up again at the 2024 deadline, when Moisés Chace went to the Phillies in the Gregory Soto trade and Trey McGough was dealt in the Eloy Jiménez trade. This past offseason, the Orioles also moved Michael Forret to Tampa Bay for Shane Baz and sent Wellington Aracena to Arizona in the Alexander trade.
They added Trey Gibson and Cameron Weston to the roster during the season, but there are still plenty of eligible players in the high minors, including Luis De León, Enrique Bradfield Jr., Aron Estrada, Nestor German, Levi Wells, Creed Willems, Juaron Watts-Brown, Patrick Reilly and Yeiber Cartaya. The first five on that list look like the most vulnerable if Baltimore doesn’t protect them, which is why there’s a case for getting value for some of those players now rather than losing them for nothing later.
If the Orioles do sell, the drop-off won’t be the same everywhere. Trevor Rogers’ absence would make the rotation worse over the next 10 starts or so than what the Orioles would get from him if he stayed.
Elsewhere, the picture is murkier. Taylor Ward is on pace for a three-win season and has posted similar overall offensive production, measured by wRC+, to his previous two seasons despite very little power.
With Tyler O’Neill starting to come around and possible returns for Alexander and Ryan Mountcastle, Baltimore could decide to take advantage of the shortage of right-handed-hitting outfielders and move Ward.
Taveras could also have value, especially if Cowser and Dylan Beavers take on more playing time. And as always, contenders need relievers. The Orioles don’t have much obvious bullpen depth waiting behind them, but they’ve found useful relievers out of nowhere before.
In Other News...
Orioles May Have Found A Deadline Answer They Cannot Ignore
With the Orioles still hanging around the playoff picture, the front office is staring at a familiar deadline balancing act: move some veterans on expiring deals, but also try to come away with players who can help beyond this season. That is the tricky middle ground for a club that is close enough to push, yet still has several teams to climb past, and it is why every rumor this time of year gets filtered through both the present and the future.
According to a report from The Athletic, Miami is open to dealing from a group of young players who could fit Baltimores needs, and that is the kind of market the Orioles have to take seriously. Their outfield remains thin, and the search for a right-handed power bat has been a long-running issue, so the possibility of adding a controllable piece with some upside gives this deadline a different feel than a simple sell-off. [Read more 🡒]
Orioles Fans May Not Be Ready For How Far This Selloff Goes
The Orioles are heading toward the trade deadline with the kind of uncertainty that can make even a familiar roster feel suddenly fluid. Baltimore looks positioned as a seller, and the conversation around the club has moved well beyond the usual rental chatter, with names such as Adley Rutschman, Trevor Rogers, Taylor Ward, Rico Garcia and Andrew Kittredge all surfacing as possible chips if the front office decides to reshape the roster aggressively.
What makes this stretch so uneasy for fans is how many more layers could still be added to the selloff. Tyler Wells, Yennier Cano, Jackson Holliday and Colton Cowser have also come up as possibilities, and the Orioles could find themselves in the middle of talks with teams like the Brewers, Dodgers, Rays and Yankees depending on how the market develops. Even the return packages are being mapped out in broad strokes, which is usually a sign that Baltimores deadline story may not stop with a few obvious moves. [Read more 🡒]
Orioles Fans May Not Be Ready For This Adley Decision
The Orioles catcher picture has gotten crowded in a hurry, and that alone has made Adley Rutschmans place in the organization feel a little less settled than it used to. Baltimore has been adding and cycling through backstops, piling up options behind the plate while also trying to sort out how the roster fits around one of the franchises most recognizable players.
For a team that once talked about Rutschman as a foundational piece, the current direction has raised more questions than answers about his role, his workload and even where his development is headed next. Mike Elias has been operating with a long view, and the way the catching depth chart is being built suggests the Orioles may be preparing for a future that looks different than the one fans expected. [Read more 🡒]