The Orioles made it official earlier this week: Ryan Noda has cleared outright waivers and will remain in the organization as a non-roster depth piece at Triple-A Norfolk. It’s another chapter in what’s been a winding road for the 30-year-old first baseman, whose early promise has given way to some hard truths about his long-term outlook in the majors.
Noda first popped onto the big-league radar when the Athletics grabbed him from the Dodgers in the 2022 Rule 5 Draft. And to his credit, he made the most of that opportunity in 2023.
His rookie season saw him post a .229/.364/.406 slash line over 128 games - good for a 122 wRC+, meaning he was producing at a rate 22% above league average. That’s not nothing, especially for a Rule 5 pick.
He showed a patient eye at the plate with a 15.6% walk rate and racked up 39 extra-base hits. But the shine wore off quickly when you dug a little deeper.
The red flags were there even during that solid debut season. His 34.3% strikeout rate was alarmingly high, and while he got on base at a strong clip, it came with the help of an unsustainable .347 BABIP. In other words, a lot of those hits came from balls dropping in that wouldn’t normally fall - not exactly the kind of foundation you want to build a career on.
Fast forward to now, and those concerns have come home to roost. Over the past two seasons, Noda has bounced between the A’s, White Sox, and Orioles, logging just 59 games at the major league level.
In that time, he’s hit a meager .127/.262/.197. The walk rate - still a solid 14.7% - remains his calling card, but it’s been completely overshadowed by a 36.5% strikeout rate and a near-total absence of power.
His barrel rate has plummeted from 13.0% in 2023 to just 6.1% over the past two years, and his Hard-Hit rate has taken a similar dive.
That lack of impact contact has made it tough for Noda to stick, even in the minors. Across 74 Triple-A games in 2025 - split between the Orioles, White Sox, Red Sox, and Angels organizations - he hit just .188/.409/.361.
That on-base percentage is eye-catching, sure, but it’s not enough to offset the low batting average and limited power. It’s a tough profile to carry, especially at a position like first base where offensive production is expected.
Still, there’s something to be said for a hitter who can consistently draw walks the way Noda does. That kind of plate discipline is rare, and if he can make even modest improvements in contact or power, there’s a path - however narrow - back to relevance.
His 2023 season proved that when things click, he can be a productive big leaguer. The question is whether that version of Noda can be rediscovered.
For now, he’ll head to spring training as organizational depth behind a crowded group of first base options in Baltimore. The Orioles just brought in Pete Alonso, joining a mix that already includes Ryan Mountcastle, Coby Mayo, and even top prospect Samuel Basallo. That’s a lot of talent competing for limited reps, and Noda’s spot on the depth chart is clearly on the fringes.
That said, depth matters - especially over the course of a long season. Injuries happen.
Trades happen. And if the Orioles end up moving someone like Mayo or Mountcastle to make room for Alonso full-time, Noda could find himself one hot streak away from another shot.
It’s a long shot, but not an impossible one.
At this stage, Noda’s story is less about upside and more about whether his one elite skill - his eye at the plate - can be enough to keep him in the conversation. He’s got work to do, no doubt. But if he can tap into even a fraction of the form he showed in 2023, the Orioles might have a useful piece stashed away in Norfolk.