The Orioles have a clear winter priority: the top of the rotation needs help.
Baltimore already tried to patch things together last offseason by trading for Shane Baz from the Rays, while also banking on Trevor Rogers bouncing back. That second part never really clicked. As a group, the Orioles’ starters landed in the middle of the pack this year, finishing 15th in fWAR and 17th in ERA.
Now the picture gets trickier. Rogers is a free agent, and while Baltimore hopes to bring him back, that won’t be simple.
Chris Bassitt is also headed for free agency. Baz and Kyle Bradish fit better as a No. 2 and No. 3 in the rotation, which leaves the Orioles hunting for a true ace.
With David Rubenstein having boosted payroll since taking over as owner, Baltimore has room to be aggressive. And with a deep farm system, the Orioles are in position to pounce if another club decides an ace is getting too expensive.
One name that makes a lot of sense is Joe Ryan.
Ryan has lived in trade rumors for more than a year, and teams have checked in on him repeatedly without getting Minnesota to budge. He has a mutual option for $13 million this offseason that is almost certain to be declined, and he’s also entering his final year of salary arbitration, which means another raise is coming.
After missing the playoffs for the third straight season, the Twins may finally decide to move him and reload the farm system they thinned out by trying to buy at this year’s deadline. Ryan has looked like a top-of-the-rotation arm for a while now, and even as a one-year rental, he would be a strong fit in Baltimore.
Logan Gilbert is another obvious target.
Seattle had a strange setup this season, with six starters they wanted to get innings for but not enough desire to use a six-man rotation. The Mariners eased that logjam by trading Luis Castillo at the deadline, but the overall rotation picture still looks crowded. After a disappointing season, they could be open to selling from that group again.
Gilbert is also entering his final year of arbitration, and MLB Trade Rumors projects him at just over $15 million this season. With George Kirby, Bryan Woo, and Bryce Miller all in arbitration too, Seattle’s pitching costs are about to stack up fast.
Moving Gilbert would free up money and create a path for top prospect Kade Anderson to step into a full-time rotation role. For Baltimore, taking on Gilbert’s salary would be well worth it, because he would slot right near the top of the staff immediately.
The third arm on the list is Reid Detmers.
Detmers finally delivered the kind of season the Angels had been waiting for, posting a 3.36 ERA over 185 innings while also topping 200 strikeouts. His 4.9 fWAR nearly doubled his career total. He was on the trade block at the deadline, and at one point there was a reported deal that would have sent him to the Cubs, though it never got done.
Even with two years of team control left, Detmers is already projected by MLB Trade Rumors at $7.5 million. That’s not a massive number yet, but it is heading upward. His trade value may be as high as it gets this offseason, and Baltimore has the prospect capital to chase that kind of move if it wants to make a real splash.
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For Baltimore, the real challenge is not just replacing innings, but deciding how much certainty it can count on in a market that rarely makes relief pitching easy. Andrew Kittredge and Keegan Akin are both trending toward free agency, and Akin is also working back from Tommy John surgery from this past July, which adds another layer to an already unsettled picture. The Orioles have spent enough time chasing the margins to know how quickly a bullpen can change shape, and this winter may force them to prove they can do it again. [Read more 🡒]