Mike Elias can’t afford to treat the Orioles’ offseason like it’s on borrowed time.
That’s because it just might be. The current labor agreement between MLB owners and the players’ union runs out on Dec. 1, and the word “lockout” is already hanging over the sport. The expectation around this next round of negotiations is clear enough: ownership may start by shutting things down, and there won’t be much runway to get a new deal done before spring training arrives.
The calendar gives both sides only about 2 ½ months before camps are supposed to open. Even so, there’s some room for the usual early warning signs - canceled bullpen sessions, skipped batting practice, the kind of disruption that turns up the heat on both sides fast.
Once Opening Day starts to feel vulnerable, the pressure changes everything. The prediction here is that the two sides will eventually keep the expired Basic Agreement in place for another year rather than repeat the mistakes of 1981 and 1994.
Those were ugly ones. The 1994 dispute wiped out a World Series and pushed a lot of fans away, and the source of the problem hasn’t changed much: owners want a structure that keeps more money in their hands, which brings the conversation around to a salary cap, however they choose to label it this time.
The players, for their part, are expected to resist as long as they can. Eventually, the thinking goes, the owners who spent billions to buy their teams may push Commissioner Rob Manfred to settle things and get baseball back on the field.
There’s even the possibility - as described in the source - that President Donald J. Trump would sign an executive order commanding the players to accept a cap and return to work, only for it to be laughed out of the appellate courts and the United States Supreme Court and end up dragging the dispute out even longer.
One reason this feels especially delicate is that almost nobody involved seems built to learn from the past. Only a couple of current players were out of short pants the last time baseball went through a labor fight like this, and most of the ownership groups that existed in 1994 are gone. That leaves Manfred as one of the few central figures who’s likely to remember just how badly this can go.
The hope here is that the owners back off by March 1st and the players give enough ground next year to avoid another mess.
For the Orioles, though, that uncertainty should be a warning, not a reason to wait. November could be a short window, and Baltimore needs to attack it. Elias has to move aggressively to add whatever pieces are needed to keep the club from stumbling into a third straight losing season.
The free-agent market figures to be chaotic, but a compressed timeline could also push players to lock in multi-year deals before things potentially clog up in March.
That’s the window. Baltimore can’t sleep through it.
In Other News...
Shane Baz Gave The Orioles More Than His Record Suggests
Shane Bazs first season in Baltimore didnt show up kindly in the win-loss column, but the Orioles had plenty of reasons to view it differently. After acquiring him from the Rays before the 2026 season in a trade that cost multiple prospects and then locking him in with a five-year extension, the club asked for stability at the front of the rotation. Baz delivered volume, taking the ball 31 times and piling up 180 innings while continuing to build back toward his pre-surgery form.
The record, of course, was rough at 6-15, and the 4.11 ERA will never tell the whole story on its own. Baltimore gave him poor run support in too many of those starts, and the stronger FIP suggested the right-hander was better than the raw results implied. More important for the Orioles, Baz looked like a pitcher who had moved further along in his recovery from Tommy John surgery, leaving him positioned as a significant part of what they want the rotation to become next. [Read more 🡒]
Orioles Rotation Questions Just Got Bigger With Cade Povich
Cade Povichs bid to factor into the Orioles 2027 rotation took another hit this week, though the club still expects the left-hander to be back in time for Spring Training. Povich underwent surgery to remove loose bodies in his elbow after a 2026 season that already included a stint on the injured list for elbow inflammation, a reminder of how quickly a promising arm can run into trouble when a young pitcher is trying to carve out a bigger role.
For Baltimore, the timing matters because the rotation picture could look very different by next season, especially if some arms reach free agency. Povich had been on the radar as a candidate for a starting job, but his late-season struggles and this latest setback only add more uncertainty to a group that could use stability, health and a few clear answers heading into 2027. [Read more 🡒]
Orioles Face A Big Question About A Bold Left Field Fix
The Orioles search for a cleaner answer in left field has already started to shape the conversation around their offseason, and Seiya Suzuki sits near the center of it. A right-handed hitter with a polished bat and enough defensive ability to handle the outfield, Suzuki checks a lot of the boxes Baltimore has been weighing as it looks for a more dependable fit in a part of the roster that has invited debate.
Still, any pursuit would have to account for more than just what Suzuki brings on the field. The Orioles have to consider how their ballpark can influence a players value, while the front office also has to weigh the broader market and what a move like this could mean beyond Baltimore. Suzukis appeal in Japan only adds another layer to a decision that is as much about strategy and fit as it is about adding another bat. [Read more 🡒]