The Baltimore Orioles aren’t finished building their rotation-far from it. Even after bringing in Shane Baz and reuniting with Zach Eflin, the front office seems to be eyeing one more major move.
And not just any move-a potential front-end starter who can anchor a playoff-caliber staff. With Ranger Suárez now off the board, having signed with the rival Red Sox, that focus has zeroed in on one name: Framber Valdez.
Valdez, a proven workhorse with October experience and one of the most consistent arms in baseball over the last four years, is now the last big domino standing in this offseason’s pitching market. And according to former Mets GM Steve Phillips, it’s a two-team race: the Orioles and the New York Mets.
“I think it's down between the Orioles and the Mets,” Phillips said on MLB Network.
It’s not hard to see why both teams are in hot pursuit. Each has a rotation that could use a true No. 1, and Valdez fits that bill better than anyone still available. Phillips even went so far as to call him the top free-agent starter this winter-yes, even ahead of Dylan Cease, who stunned the market with a seven-year, $210 million deal earlier in the offseason.
Let’s take a closer look at what makes Valdez so appealing. Over the past four seasons, he’s logged 767.2 innings-second-most in all of baseball-and posted a career ERA of 3.36.
That kind of durability is rare in today’s game, and while some teams might be wary of the mileage, the Orioles may see it as exactly what they need. Their current rotation mix-Baz, Trevor Rogers, Kyle Bradish, and others-has talent, but also a troubling track record when it comes to staying healthy.
The Mets are in a similar boat. Kodai Senga was supposed to be their ace, and he looked the part early, delivering a 2.98 ERA in his debut season.
But over the last two years, he’s made just 23 starts and even had a stint in Triple-A to work out some issues. The rest of the Mets’ rotation-Sean Manaea, David Peterson, and Clay Holmes-features solid arms but lacks a true top-tier presence.
Their pitching prospects, including Nolan McLean, bring plenty of intrigue but are still unproven at the big-league level.
That’s where Valdez comes in. He’s the kind of pitcher who can stabilize a rotation from Day 1, and with Scott Boras representing him, the expectation is that he’ll land a five-year deal. Boras just secured that exact commitment for Suárez in Boston, and he’ll be pushing for the same here.
So, who’s going to blink first?
Orioles GM Mike Elias said back in October that he was willing to go big-both in years and dollars-for the right pitcher. That hasn’t happened yet, and if Baltimore is serious about taking the next step in their contention window, Valdez may be the kind of exception Elias is willing to make.
But the Mets have their own motivations. President of Baseball Operations David Stearns has been conservative with long-term deals, especially for pitchers.
He sat out on guys like Corbin Burnes, Max Fried, and Blake Snell last offseason and hasn’t handed out a contract longer than three years to a starter. Even this winter, he let franchise cornerstone Pete Alonso walk to Baltimore, opting instead for shorter, high-AAV deals with Jorge Polanco (two years) and Bo Bichette (three years).
That sets the stage for what looks like a classic standoff. Two teams with clear needs.
One top-tier pitcher left. And two front offices that have historically been cautious about long-term commitments to arms.
The question now: who breaks form first?
Whoever does is likely to walk away with the last true ace on the board-and a major boost to their postseason aspirations.