The Orioles are down to six games before the All-Star break, and the stretch ahead should tell Mike Elias plenty about what kind of deadline he’s really staring at.
Three games with the Cubs, then three with the Royals at Camden Yards. That’s the runway. Baltimore has been better at home than on the road, going 24-23 in its own park and 18-26 away from it, but the bigger picture is even tighter: the Orioles are only a half-game ahead of last-place Boston, and the Red Sox have won three straight.
In a crowded, chaotic American League, that kind of margin doesn’t buy much breathing room. The Rays are sitting atop the league at 52-36.
The Yankees dropped nine of 10 and 12 of 15 before beating the Rays last night. The White Sox are in first place at 47-42 after three straight 100-loss seasons.
The Mariners are leading while only three games over .500, and the Rangers are parked in second at 45-45.
That mess makes Elias’ job harder, not easier. He has to decide whether the Orioles are buyers, sellers, or something in between, and he’s running out of time to sort it out.
“I think at the end of the day we just have to compete and win each day, and then all that stuff will kind of figure itself out as we go,” said infielder Jeremiah Jackson. “We’re just ready for the next game and we’re just looking to dominate today and play our brand of baseball moving forward every day.”
The trade chatter has already started to point in one direction. The Athletic’s Jim Bowden wrote that the Orioles “have made it clear that starting pitching continues to be their top priority in all trade discussions,” though that’s a curious read given where the real trouble has been. The bullpen has been the bigger issue, and that was true even before closer Ryan Helsley and left-hander Keegan Akin went down with elbow injuries.
The rotation, meanwhile, has become a strength and a major reason Baltimore is still hanging around the Wild Card race.
That matters because bullpen help is usually cheaper in prospects or young major league talent. And if the Orioles are going to spend real capital, they need to know exactly where it’s going.
“It’s fun to play behind,” Jackson said of the rotation. “They’re doing well.
They’re grinding. We are, too.
I think as a whole right now, as a team, I think we’re in a great spot, and moving forward, it’s gonna be a lot of fun days ahead of us.”
Bowden also floated Tarik Skubal if the Tigers decide to make him available, but the more believable names are the Angels’ Reid Detmers and José Soriano. Those are the kinds of targets that make more sense for Baltimore, because Elias would have to give up top prospects for a rental, and the Orioles need a reason to even think about that kind of move.
There’s also the possibility that Baltimore’s deadline ends up looking a lot like 2024, when Elias added starters Rogers and Zach Eflin along with relievers Seranthony Domínguez and Gregory Soto. He could also push higher on the offensive side than Eloy Jiménez, Austin Slater and Christian Pache.
For now, the roster picture is still hazy. If the Orioles keep bouncing between good stretches and frustrating ones, the deadline plan may stay murky right up until the last minute. If they catch fire or collapse, that should make the decision for Elias.
The selling side would include players on expiring contracts, such as Rogers, outfielder Taylor Ward and reliever Andrew Kittredge. Helsley has an opt-out in his deal, but his injury muddies that situation. Akin’s elbow injury and first baseman Ryan Mountcastle’s fractured foot do the same.
Elias has shown before that he isn’t afraid to move players under team control. He did it last summer with Kittredge, reliever Bryan Baker, infielder Ramón Urias and outfielder Ramón Laureano. If he goes that route again, he could also look for controllable players coming back, especially if he’s thinking beyond 2026.
The Cubs bring a strong resume into Camden Yards at 50-40, good for second place in the National League Central. They’ve won six of their last eight and 12 of 16, and their plus-46 run differential backs up the record.
Their offense has been one of the league’s better groups, with 455 runs that ranked fourth in the majors yesterday and a .747 OPS that ranked fifth. The rotation has been less reliable, carrying a 4.62 ERA that ranked 24th.
Peter Crow-Armstrong has been one of the biggest reasons for Chicago’s success. He ranks second in the majors with a 5.5 fWAR and is hitting .292/.383/.527 with 14 doubles, four triples, 19 home runs, 49 RBIs, 41 walks and 23 stolen bases in 90 games.
Matthew Boyd starts for the Cubs, making his eighth appearance and his third since coming off the injured list. He had surgery on his left knee on May 7 and was initially expected back before soreness in his left shoulder delayed things. Boyd threw 4 2/3 scoreless innings against the Mets on June 25, then gave up three runs and eight hits in five innings against the Padres.
Against the Orioles, Boyd has made six career starts and posted a 4.83 ERA in 31 2/3 innings. In two starts at Camden Yards, he has allowed three runs with 14 strikeouts in 10 1/3 innings.
Pete Alonso is 0-for-5 with four strikeouts.
In Other News...
Contender Now Linked To One Orioles Bat Fans Feared Losing
The trade deadline is starting to draw some familiar names into the rumor mill, and for Orioles fans, one of the more uncomfortable ones is a bat they have grown attached to. CBS Sports Mike Axisa recently pegged Taylor Ward as a possible fit for a Phillies club that has improved under Don Mattingly and looks like a buyer, with the appeal tied to his on-base ability and right-handed swing even as his home run total has dipped.
For Baltimore, the intrigue is less about Philadelphias needs than what Ward represents if the market keeps warming up. He is viewed as the kind of rental a contender can chase before he reaches free agency after the season, which is exactly the sort of profile that tends to stir deadline noise around a player who has become part of the Orioles everyday picture. The question now is how aggressive that pursuit gets, and whether Baltimore is forced to weigh short-term value against the kind of return that could make moving him easier to stomach. [Read more 🡒]
Orioles Suddenly Have A Taylor Ward Problem At The Worst Time
Taylor Ward gave the Orioles exactly the kind of early boost they were hoping for, working his way on base at a strong clip and producing enough in April to look like a real middle-of-the-order fit. Since then, though, the bat has cooled, and the difference has shown up in both his power and his ability to get on base, which has made his once-promising start feel more fragile as the calendar moves toward the trade deadline.
That slide has already been noticed outside Baltimore, too. ESPNs latest trade-chip rankings have Ward slipping from 12th in the first edition to 24th now, a reminder that his market is changing along with his production. The Orioles would love to see him straighten things out over the next stretch, not just because they need the offense, but because a stronger finish would give them a much better position when the deadline conversations really start to heat up. [Read more 🡒]
Orioles Bullpen Concerns Just Grew As Another Lineup Shuffle Looms
The Orioles bullpen picture took another hit with Keegan Akin now seeking a second opinion on his left elbow, while Colin Selby remains on the 60-day injured list and Ryan Helsley is still working through treatment on his right elbow. For a club already trying to patch together innings, the latest medical updates only add to the pressure on a relief group that has been asked to absorb a lot this season.
At the same time, Baltimore is trying to manage the rest of the roster with an eye on a Cubs matchup that brings a left-handed starter into the mix. The lineup card reflects that balancing act, with the Orioles turning to several younger bats and moving pieces around as they look for the right combination, even as the bullpen uncertainty keeps hanging over the day. [Read more 🡒]