Orioles Are Betting A New Development Plan Can Unlock Gunnar Henderson

With the Orioles looking to bounce back from two challenging seasons, new GM Jared Banner's focus on tailored development plans echoes his past success, offering hope for a resurgent Gunnar Henderson.

The Orioles’ offseason chatter has already circled back to the same place it always seems to land: the young core. And at the center of that conversation is Gunnar Henderson, whose last two seasons have fallen short of the standard he set when he won American League Rookie of the Year in 2023 and then finished top five in MVP voting the next year.

Baltimore has plenty of reasons to be asking hard questions. Jackson Holliday was rushed to the majors and has struggled to produce while dealing with multiple injuries.

Jordan Westburg has been productive when healthy, but staying on the field has been a problem, and he’s now coming off a missed 2026 season because of Tommy John surgery. Colton Cowser has become a solid center field option, though his bat still hasn’t matched expectations, and the same can be said for Dylan Beavers.

The Orioles are listening to offers on everyone except Pete Alonso this offseason as they try to upgrade the roster, but President of Baseball Operations Mike Elias made it clear at the GM meetings in Las Vegas that the club is not eager to move its foundational pieces.

“A lot of our key, core players are very unlikely to go anywhere,” Elias said. He said the Orioles believe in their rebound ability but want to stay flexible to improve roster

That backdrop makes Jared Banner’s arrival even more interesting. The new general manager has spent his first few weeks introducing himself to Birdland, and his comments about player development suggest a possible path for getting Baltimore’s young hitters back on track.

On The Banner Baseball podcast, Banner praised the Orioles’ work developing hitters in the minors, but he also pointed out the gap between that success and what happens once those players reach the majors. That’s where his experience with Pete Crow-Armstrong in Chicago stands out.

Banner described Crow-Armstrong’s rise to MVP-candidate status in 2026 as the product of patience, repetition, and a plan that finally clicked.

“We put together a lot of different plans for [Pete Crow-Armstrong], and none of them really took for a while, and then one day on our most recent plan, it worked. It clicked in his head…but he was able to give himself some visualization that allowed him to be more selective, and it worked for him overnight, and he believed in it and stuck with it and turned it into an MVP season,” Banner explained.

The key change for Crow-Armstrong was simple in concept and huge in results: he chased less, forced pitchers into the zone, and did his damage there. His chase rate dropped from 42% in 2024 and 2025 to 34% this season.

That’s where the Orioles’ situation starts to feel familiar. Henderson’s chase rate has climbed year after year over the last three seasons. If Banner can help him find the same kind of breakthrough he helped engineer with Crow-Armstrong, Baltimore may not need to blow up its core to get better.

Banner has also spoken often about the idea that the best players share a “growth mindset,” a constant drive to improve. The Orioles emphasized that philosophy when Mike Elias first took over, but the message seemed to lose some force over time, especially after the club moved on from former Vice President of player and staff development Matt Blood, who helped bring that mentality to the farm system in 2019-2020.

Now, under Banner, the Orioles are already investing in a director of mental health performance to help players handle the mental side of the game. That fits neatly with the approach he described in the Crow-Armstrong example: not a one-size-fits-all fix, but a tailored process built through trial and error until something finally sticks.

The organization does not need to scrap everything. Baltimore’s minor league pipeline has already shown it can produce talent. The bigger question is whether the same kind of individualized approach can help the major league roster translate that talent into production.

There is at least one reason to think the outlook is not as bleak as the recent results suggest. Steamer’s 2027 projections have Henderson near a 5.0 fWAR season with a 125 wRC+, which points to a player who may simply need the right adjustment rather than a total overhaul.

If Banner can bring the same flexibility, experimentation, and personalization he described from his time with Crow-Armstrong, the Orioles may not have to tear apart their young core this winter. They may just need to unlock it.

And Henderson does not have to become Pete Crow-Armstrong in 2027 for that to matter. Getting him back on track would go a long way toward getting the Orioles’ offense rolling again and, ideally, pushing the club back toward the playoffs sooner rather than later.

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Orioles Still Have One Big Bullpen Decision Hanging Over 2027

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Mike Elias has made it clear the club is not locking anything in yet, and that the answer will depend on how the roster takes shape and how each pitcher comes back. For Baltimore, it is a reminder that bullpen depth is only part of the equation. The real issue is whether either arm is ready to reclaim the high-leverage role the Orioles had in mind when they put this group together. [Read more 🡒]