Shane Baz arrived in Baltimore with the kind of build and arm talent that make people dream on more than ordinary results. But in his first season with the Orioles, he looked a lot more like a plain-vanilla starter than a frontline difference-maker.
That’s the real tension here: Baltimore paid an extreme price to get him, sending four top chips including potential franchise catcher Caden Bodine, and then doubled down with a rare contract extension. Mike Elias clearly wasn’t chasing “pretty good.”
He was chasing something bigger. After a season like this, it’s fair to ask whether that ceiling is actually there.
Baz was durable and he did his part by taking the ball every turn, something he’s now done without missing a start over the last two seasons. He also made some real progress in Baltimore, especially after late May, and he showed enough command of a full pitch mix to suggest this wasn’t a total dead end. Still, the bottom line is hard to ignore: his ERA+ landed at 99, right on league average, and the stuff didn’t play like a true impact starter.
The fastball remains the calling card, but everything else lagged behind. His breaking ball run value sat in the bottom 18th percentile, and his offspeed run value was even worse, down in the bottom 5%.
That’s a rough profile for a starter who needs to beat hitters with more than just velocity. Baz simply didn’t miss enough bats, and the rest of the indicators backed that up - batting average in the 28th percentile, ground balls in the 30th percentile and whiffs in the 20th.
The split against left-handed hitters was especially glaring. They saw him well, and teams kept lining up that way against him. Baz faced 155 more plate appearances from lefties than from righties, and those hitters tagged him for 11 home runs while posting a .278/.348/.437 line with a .789 OPS.
There were some things to give him credit for. He dealt with poor run support.
He also did a better job limiting the long ball than you might expect from a pitcher with his profile. And it’s fair to account for the adjustment period that comes with changing organizations, especially when Tampa’s development machine is a far cry from what Baltimore has offered.
But the larger question is whether this is who Shane Baz is. He’s 27, he’s removed from Tommy John surgery, and this may be the shape of his next two or three seasons. If that’s the case, then Baltimore is probably looking at another average starter, not the kind of arm Elias had in mind when he paid up and handed out the extension.
And with the Orioles sitting 19 games back in the AL East, that’s not nearly enough. If Baz and Kyle Bradish are supposed to be the headliners of this rotation, there’s a real problem.
The Orioles need more than durability and a decent season. They need a starter who changes the math.
Baz didn’t come close to that in 2026.
In Other News...
Mike Elias Keeps Giving Orioles Fans Another Reason To Hate The Rays
The Orioles front office has spent plenty of time chasing the Rays in the standings, but Tampa Bay keeps finding another way to make life harder in Baltimore. Mike Elias, now the clubs chief baseball executive, has become part of that dynamic after dealing away players who have since turned into useful pieces for the Rays, adding another layer to a rivalry that already leaves Orioles fans on edge.
Among the names in that mix are catcher Caden Bodine and closer Bryan Baker, both examples of ex-Oriole talent helping Tampa Bay stay in the conversation while Baltimore fights through its own roster and development issues. It is the kind of contrast that tends to sharpen the criticism around Elias, because every Rays success story seems to send the conversation back to what the Orioles gave up and why the gap between the two clubs still feels so familiar. [Read more 🡒]
Jordan Westburg Suddenly Feels Caught In Baltimore's Infield Squeeze
Jordan Westburgs lost 2026 season changed more than his own timetable. After Tommy John surgery kept him out entirely, the Orioles spent the year sorting out third base and second base without him, and now the club finds itself with a crowded infield picture that looks different from the one Westburg left behind. Christian Encarnacion-Strand, Coby Mayo, Jackson Holliday and Blaze Alexander have all helped fill those spots, giving Baltimore real options and a much less obvious path back for Westburg.
That has put the 25-year-old in an awkward position for a team that still values depth but also has to make the roster fit. The Orioles suddenly have more middle-infield and corner-infield answers than openings, and that kind of surplus tends to force hard choices. Westburgs name is now in the conversation not because of his performance on the field, but because Baltimore may have to decide whether keeping everyone is less realistic than dealing from a position of strength. [Read more 🡒]
Former Orioles Are Giving Birdland Plenty To Track This October
October has a familiar feel around Birdland this year, with a long list of former Orioles scattered across the Division Series and suddenly giving Baltimore fans a few extra teams to monitor. The group includes 13 ex-Orioles now playing key roles for clubs in both leagues, from the Padres and Dodgers to the Rays, Brewers and Indians, a reminder of how much roster turnover has passed through Camden Yards and how many old faces are still very much in the postseason mix.
For Orioles fans, the appeal is part nostalgia and part curiosity. Some of those players spent meaningful stretches in Baltimore before moving on, while others only had brief stops, but all of them now have a stake in October games with real consequences. Even with the Orioles not in the bracket themselves, the presence of so many familiar names gives this round an extra layer of intrigue as Birdland keeps one eye on its own future and another on what its former players do next. [Read more 🡒]