The Orioles’ rise was built the old-fashioned way: by losing enough to stockpile premium draft picks, then turning those picks into the kind of core that can keep a club winning. In Mike Elias’ first two seasons running the front office, Baltimore hit the jackpot with Adley Rutschman, Gunnar Henderson and Jordan Westburg. The drafts since then haven’t been nearly as clean.
Here’s a look at how the Orioles’ first-round picks from the last five years stack up, including comp picks.
Colton Cowser was the Orioles’ fifth overall pick in 2021, and he lands at B+. He can be maddening at the plate because his swings and misses can pile up fast, but he has carved out real value by becoming an elite defender in the outfield.
For a team that doesn’t have many elite defenders, that matters. And in a 2021 first round full of traps, Baltimore did well to take him.
The 20 players drafted after Cowser don’t offer a name that makes you think the Orioles missed badly.
Jackson Holliday, taken first overall in 2022, gets a C+. That may feel generous given how his career has gone so far relative to the expectations around him, but the bigger point is that Baltimore still appears to have chosen the right player from a draft class where the other top options would have been disastrous.
If the Orioles had gone another direction at the top, the result would have looked like a major whiff. The hope now is that Holliday can string together a strong second half and become viewed as a good player in his own right, not just a better choice than the alternatives.
Dylan Beavers, the Orioles’ 2022 pick at No. 33, earns a B. For a while, he looked like a possible fourth-outfielder type at best, but he broke out in 2025 and jumped up prospect lists before reaching the majors.
He gave Baltimore a solid little debut to finish 2025, though his 2026 has been quieter and a hamstring injury didn’t help. Even so, getting a first-rounder to the big leagues and into positive WAR territory is a win.
The Orioles would still love a bigger leap from either Beavers or Holliday this season.
Enrique Bradfield Jr., chosen 17th in 2023, comes in at C-. Baltimore took him for the speed and center-field defense, hoping the bat would develop enough to make him more than a specialist.
The glove and wheels have shown up, but the offense hasn’t followed. He’s likely to debut sometime this year, but based on his minor league struggles at the plate, the ceiling looks more like bench bat and pinch runner than everyday impact player.
That profile has value, but not a ton of it at No. 17, especially with strong prospects going soon after.
The 2024 class is where things really went off the rails. Vance Honeycutt gets an F and is labeled the worst first-round pick Mike Elias has made as Orioles GM.
He was overslot, which cost Baltimore a shot at better players later in the draft, and he got overwhelmed almost immediately in the minors. He’s back at High-A for a second straight year and still hitting under .200.
That’s a bust.
Griff O’Ferrall also gets an F. He’s the kind of player teams often talk themselves into because of the “high floor” label, but there hasn’t been much to dream on here. He’s a solid defensive infielder who doesn’t hit for average or power, and while he might grind his way to the majors someday, the upside is limited.
The 2025 class looks better. Ike Irish earns a B+ after looking like exactly the kind of hitter Baltimore hoped it was getting.
His defensive home is still unsettled - he was drafted as a catcher, but the Orioles don’t seem thrilled with him there, and he’s trying to make it work in the outfield with first base also in play - but the bat is the selling point, and it has lived up to the billing. He was supposed to be one of the best hitters in the class, and so far, he has been.
Caden Bodine also gets a B+, even though he’s no longer in the organization after being included in the Shane Baz trade in the offseason. Baltimore liked him for his defensive-catching floor and believed there was more offense to unlock, and that has shown up with the Rays. It was a good pick.
Wehiwa Aloy is the bright spot of the group, earning an A. Some mock drafts had the Orioles taking him at No. 19, so landing the Golden Spikes Award winner at No. 34 looks like a real steal. He has been excellent at High-A on both sides of the ball and appears ready for a move to the upper minors.
Slater De Brun, taken at No. 37, gets no grade yet because he also went out in the Shane Baz trade and has not made his minor league debut. That makes him impossible to evaluate for now, beyond the fact that his high school tools and play were good enough to help Baltimore land a controllable starting pitcher.
In Other News...
Dodgers Trade Proposal Puts Orioles In A Tough Spot With Lefty
The Orioles keep getting pulled into the pitching market chatter, and Trevor Rogers is the kind of arm that naturally draws it. He has been uneven enough over the full season to leave plenty of questions, but his recent stretch has also reminded teams why left-handed starters with upside still carry real appeal in July. For Baltimore, that creates the familiar tension of weighing short-term value against the kind of trade interest that can reshape a deadline conversation.
What makes the situation trickier is the timing. Rogers would come with no long-term control, so any deal has to be judged against the price of the return, not just the name value on the other side. The Dodgers are still shopping for pitching help and have bigger targets they could chase, which only adds to the sense that Baltimore could be asked to part with a useful arm without getting the kind of package that makes a move easy to justify. [Read more 🡒]
Orioles Fans May Never Forget This Missed Chance At An Ace
The Orioles were in position at the 2024 trade deadline to chase the kind of frontline starter every contender covets, and Tarik Skubal was sitting right there as the obvious prize. Detroit never completed a deal, Baltimore never got its ace, and the missed window has only grown more frustrating as the pitching market keeps reminding teams how rare those chances are.
MLB Network Insider Jon Morosi has framed it as the kind of opportunity Baltimore may not get back, especially with Skubals name already surfacing again as the 2025 deadline draws closer. For an Orioles club that has spent the last year trying to balance present urgency with future value, the lingering question is whether the front office will be willing to pay the price this time around. [Read more 🡒]
Ryan Mountcastle Just Became An Orioles Deadline Tension Point
Ryan Mountcastle is still working back from the 60-day injured list, and the Orioles at least have some clarity on the broad outline of his recovery. President of baseball operations Mike Elias said Mountcastle is progressing, with a return possible after the All-Star break, but he stopped short of putting a date on it. For a team in the middle of a rebuild, that leaves one of its more recognizable bats in a familiar holding pattern: close enough to matter, not quite close enough to know exactly where he fits.
The bigger question is what happens once he is ready. Baltimore has enough uncertainty around the roster that Mountcastles next step is not just about health, but about opportunity, and there is already a sense that the Orioles could listen if the right trade angle emerges before the Aug. 3 deadline. For now, the club is still waiting on the same thing everyone else is - a clearer picture of when he is back, and what role he would actually have when he gets there. [Read more 🡒]