Mike Elias is going to spend the rest of his Orioles tenure without a ring, but the Rays might owe him a thank-you card.
That’s how lopsided the gap has become. Baltimore has gone a combined 38 games out of first in the AL East over the last two years, and the franchise’s chief baseball executive has watched the whole thing slide in the wrong direction. Meanwhile, Tampa Bay keeps cashing in on moves that trace back to Elias, and now the Rays are one win from possibly hosting the White Sox in the American League Championship Series.
The list of former Orioles in Tampa’s orbit is long enough to matter. Five players on the Rays’ 26-man roster for the ALDS had previously been under Elias’s watch, and there’s a growing belief around the industry that 21-year-old catcher Caden Bodine will be with Tampa for most of next season. The word on Bodine is big-league impact, with Rookie of the Year potential and a polished bat to go with exceptional defense behind the plate for someone that young.
Bodine was one of four key pieces Elias sent the Rays in the Shane Baz deal. Austin Overn could be in Tampa by next September, too, while Baz remains what he is: a perfectly ordinary MLB starter who doesn’t miss enough bats. Tampa’s front office has turned that pipeline into real value, while Baltimore keeps looking like the team that lost the trade and the bigger picture.
The Rays’ bullpen has been one of the clearest examples.
Bryan Baker, who had all his swagger back while mowing down the Yankees in the ninth inning Monday, was a command project Tampa fixed almost immediately after Elias moved him in the summer of 2025 because he was struggling and out of options. Baker led the American League in saves while the Orioles spent the year without a true ninth-inning arm.
In Baltimore, he posted a 3.37 ERA, a 1.20 WHIP and three saves in 173 games. In Tampa, he’s been a different pitcher: 2.53 ERA, 0.982 WHIP and 42 saves in 96 games.
And the pick Baltimore got for Baker? Thirty-seventh overall, used on infielder Slater de Brun, who was later sent back to Tampa in the Baz trade.
Tyler Wells is another one that stings. He could work multiple innings, handled both lefties and righties, cost almost nothing and remained under team control for 2027.
Instead of keeping him around as a possible answer at the back of the bullpen, Baltimore dealt him for Michael Forret, who also ended up in the Baz package. Wells has thrived with Tampa, putting up a 1.50 ERA, a .722 WHIP and two saves.
The Orioles, meanwhile, are left wondering whether holding onto him might have changed those one-run games they finished 18-24 in.
Cole Sulser and Tanner Scott are another reminder of how much Elias gave away while the Orioles were deep in the tank. Both became accomplished relievers, while Baltimore got two forgettable Marlins pieces, a competitive balance pick that became Jud Fabian, and Yaqui Rivera, who still has a chance to matter in the future. Sulser, in Tampa, logged a 2.94 ERA and 1.16 WHIP across 82 games.
Cedric Mullins is in the mix too. Elias never really sold high on him after Mullins’s peak as a 30/30 leadoff threat, even if his value had already dipped by the time Baltimore finally moved on in 2025.
The Orioles got Anthony Nunez from the Mets for Mullins, and he may end up helping them. Mullins, for his part, played 137 games for Tampa, hit 15 homers and posted a 75 OPS+.
Even so, he’s the kind of player who could still deliver a playoff moment or two for the Rays.
Jorge Mateo followed a similar path. Elias had a chance to cash in when Mateo put together a Gold Glove-caliber season in Baltimore, but the Orioles instead moved on later, not exercising his option in 2026. Tampa picked him up for the stretch run, and in 32 appearances he stole nine bases and gave the Rays exactly what they wanted: speed and a versatile glove.
That’s the story of Elias and Tampa Bay. Baltimore kept moving pieces out, and the Rays kept turning them into something useful.
In Other News...
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That has put the 25-year-old in an awkward position for a team that still values depth but also has to make the roster fit. The Orioles suddenly have more middle-infield and corner-infield answers than openings, and that kind of surplus tends to force hard choices. Westburgs name is now in the conversation not because of his performance on the field, but because Baltimore may have to decide whether keeping everyone is less realistic than dealing from a position of strength. [Read more 🡒]
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Orioles Already Face A Shane Baz Question They Couldn't Afford
Shane Bazs first season as a starter for Baltimore gave the Orioles some of the innings they needed, but it also left plenty of questions hanging over the fit. He held up physically and gave the rotation a dependable workload, yet the overall performance landed in the middle ground rather than the kind of impact year that can change a staffs ceiling. For a club trying to sharpen its pitching identity, that kind of outcome is useful only up to a point.
Bazs profile also points to a few troubling edges that matter in a division where opposing lineups punish weakness quickly. Left-handed hitters had success against him, and his breaking and offspeed stuff did not miss bats the way Baltimore hoped it would. So while the Orioles can appreciate the durability, the bigger issue is whether there is another gear to find, because their pitching staff composition leaves little room for a starter who is merely serviceable. [Read more 🡒]