The Baltimore Orioles might have missed their window to secure Trevor Rogers with a budget-friendly extension. In a move that set the market for left-handed starters, the Phillies inked Jesus Luzardo to a five-year, $135 million deal. This contract is a clear signal to Rogers: stay healthy for a full season, as Luzardo did in 2025, and a lucrative nine-figure contract could be on the horizon.
Rogers and Luzardo are cut from the same cloth. Both are late-20s lefties, former Marlins, and have battled injuries.
They even share a similar pitching repertoire, boasting a five-pitch mix that includes a 4-seam fastball, changeup, sweeper, sinker, and slider. With Luzardo’s new deal as a benchmark, Rogers’ market value has undoubtedly risen.
Player comparisons are crucial in contract talks, and before Luzardo’s extension, Rogers didn’t have a perfect match to gauge his worth. Most left-handed starters landing big deals were either more accomplished or consistent.
But Luzardo’s profile fits Rogers like a glove. Here’s a look at their numbers from 2020-2024:
- Innings: Rogers 410.1, Luzardo 500
- ERA: Both at 4.36
- FIP: Rogers 3.80, Luzardo 4.00
- K/9: Rogers 9.2, Luzardo 9.8
- WAR: Rogers 4.1, Luzardo 6.9
In 2025, both pitchers had standout seasons in their own right. Luzardo showcased dominance with over 180 innings and a K/9 of 10.6, while Rogers excelled in run prevention, boasting a 1.81 ERA over 109 innings.
Rogers’ negotiating position has strengthened significantly. Previously, it was tough to argue he was as dominant as Blake Snell or as consistent as Framber Valdez or Max Fried. Now, with Luzardo’s contract as a reference, Rogers’ agent can confidently set a high starting point for negotiations.
The Orioles’ hopes of locking Rogers into a team-friendly deal are likely dashed. If Rogers delivers a full season with an ERA under four, he’s poised to command at least what Luzardo received.
And with Luzardo signed before reaching free agency, Rogers entering the market could drive his price even higher. Teams missing out on other top starters like Tarik Skubal might be ready to offer Rogers five years, $150 million or more.
Under Mike Elias, the Orioles haven’t shown a penchant for winning bidding wars for elite starting pitchers. If the competition for Rogers heats up, the Orioles might step back and opt for a more affordable, short-term veteran option.