With less than a week left in the regular season, Wednesday’s 16-game MLB slate is loaded with regulars still in the lineup and plenty of home run prop angles worth sorting through. The best part of a day like this is that the board isn’t just built around the obvious names - there’s value tucked into spots where the matchup and recent form line up just right.
One of the cleaner plays on the slate comes from Colorado catcher Hunter Goodman, who has been one of the few real bright spots for the Rockies. Goodman enters Wednesday with 39 home runs and an .834 OPS in 2026, and he’ll get Arizona’s Merrill Kelly, who has allowed 28 home runs in as many outings while carrying a 5.00 ERA. Kelly’s team is still hanging around in the NL wild card chase, but that also means there’s a chance the leash gets short if he runs into trouble early.
Goodman has already taken Kelly deep once in his career, and he’s done it in 15 at-bats against him overall. The Rockies catcher has cooled off a bit lately, with just two home runs over his last 21 games and a .200 average in that span, but he still owns 28 homers against right-handed pitching. Even with the slump, the power profile keeps him firmly in play in this NL West matchup.
Gunnar Henderson is another name that stands out, especially with Baltimore and Toronto meeting in Game 1 of a doubleheader that carries real AL wild card pressure. Henderson’s season hasn’t matched expectations on the surface - he’s sitting on 24 home runs with a .224 average and a .718 OPS - but he’s come alive over the last month.
Over his last 10 games, Henderson has two home runs, a .342 average and a 1.024 OPS. In his last five, he’s hit .350 with three extra-base hits.
That surge matters against Max Scherzer, who has a 6.07 ERA and has allowed 14 home runs in 16 appearances this season. Henderson is 4-for-10 with a double and a .955 OPS against Scherzer in his career, and while he hasn’t homered off the veteran righty yet, the matchup still points to power potential.
At +466, he’s a strong value in Game 1.
The longest shot of the three belongs to Cody Bellinger, but the price makes him interesting. Bellinger homered in Game 1 of the Yankees’ doubleheader with the Rays on Tuesday, and he gets another crack at it Wednesday night against left-hander Ian Seymour. He’s 3-for-5 with a double, a home run and a 2.000 OPS against Seymour in his career, and he’s been locked in since returning from the injured list earlier in the summer.
Over his last 26 games, with 25 starts, Bellinger is hitting .305 with five home runs and an .810 OPS. All five of those long balls have come in his last 13 games, pushing him to 17 home runs on the season.
Seymour has had trouble keeping the ball in the park, allowing 25 homers in 127.1 innings and giving up a homer in seven straight outings. He’s allowed 12 homers in that stretch, which is exactly the kind of trend that makes Bellinger appealing at +553 in Game 3 of the four-game set.
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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Orioles Fans Sent A Clear Message Despite One Worry Looming
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Pete Alonso also had the larger picture on his mind, even as the Orioles finished out their home schedule. With the leagues labor deal set to expire in December, there is already some worry about what comes next, though Alonso said he hopes negotiations are resolved without any games being lost, pointing back to the 2022 lockout as a warning sign. Craig Albernaz, meanwhile, noticed the support from the stands and had reason to appreciate it, even with the uncertainty hanging over the sport. [Read more 🡒]