The top of the college basketball landscape is set for a shakeup this week-and it's not just possible, it's guaranteed. That's because two of the projected No. 1 seeds in the latest CBS Sports Bracketology model are going head-to-head Tuesday night in a heavyweight Big Ten showdown: Nebraska travels to Ann Arbor to take on Michigan in a game that could have major implications for March.
Nebraska enters the matchup as the final No. 1 seed in the current bracket projection, and they’ve earned that spot with an unblemished record and the nation’s No. 2 strength of record. Along with Arizona, the Cornhuskers are one of just two unbeaten high-major teams left in the country. But here’s the catch-while the résumé is impressive, the analytics aren’t quite sold.
In fact, Nebraska is a 10.5-point underdog heading into the game, a number that reflects a resume-analytics gap that’s hard to ignore. The Cornhuskers haven’t cracked the top 10 in any of the key metrics used on the NCAA team sheet.
Their best showing? A modest 17th in BPI.
That’s not the kind of profile you usually see from a top seed, and it’s why Tuesday’s game is such a big opportunity.
A win in Ann Arbor wouldn’t just keep Nebraska’s perfect record intact-it would go a long way toward validating their place on the top line of the bracket. Beating a team of Michigan’s caliber on the road would help bridge the gap between what the eye test and the analytics are saying. It’s the kind of statement win that selection committees remember.
But even if Nebraska comes up short, it’s not necessarily a disaster. A road loss to a high-level team like Michigan doesn’t do much damage in the eyes of the committee. According to the model, the Cornhuskers could still hold onto that No. 1 seed, depending on how the rest of the week shakes out.
Bracket Breakdown: Who's Rising, Who's Falling
Zooming out from the top seeds, the conference race for NCAA Tournament bids is heating up. Right now, the Big Ten and Big 12 are flexing their muscle at the top of the bracket-they combine for eight of the top 12 seeds entering Monday night’s action. That’s a clear sign of strength at the top, and it’s not just about quantity-it’s about quality.
But when it comes to total bids, the SEC has reclaimed the lead, thanks in part to some key bubble wins. Missouri and Texas both picked up timely conference victories over the weekend, nudging the SEC’s projected total back up to 11 teams in the field. That’s a big number, and it speaks to the depth of the league this season.
The Big 12 is also trending upward. TCU’s road win over Baylor pushed the Horned Frogs into the projected field, increasing the conference’s bid total from seven to eight. Meanwhile, the ACC took a hit-Stanford’s 12-point home loss to Cal knocked them out of the field, dropping the ACC’s total from 10 to nine.
The Big East is also feeling the squeeze. Seton Hall has now lost four straight, and that skid has landed them in “First Four Out” territory. That drops the Big East’s bid count from four to three, and puts added pressure on teams like Providence and Creighton to hold the line.
The Rematch Dilemma
As the NCAA Tournament field takes shape, one of the quiet challenges the selection committee faces is avoiding rematches-especially between conference opponents. With more high-stakes nonconference games and expanded league schedules, it’s getting harder to keep teams from running into familiar foes in March.
The 2025 bracket had three potential second-round games between conference rivals, though none of them actually happened. Still, the committee is guided by specific principles: if two teams from the same conference played once in the regular season, they can meet as early as the second round.
If they met twice, the earliest possible rematch is the Sweet 16. And if they played three times, they shouldn’t see each other again until the Elite Eight.
The same goes for nonconference rematches. The committee aims to avoid those in the First Four and first round, and will “attempt to avoid” them in the second round. But there’s a limit to how much they’ll shuffle the bracket to avoid a repeat matchup-preserving seed lines usually takes precedence.
So while the committee does its best to keep things fresh in March, don’t be surprised if a few familiar faces cross paths again. With the way this season is shaping up, there’s bound to be some unfinished business once the bracket is set.
As we head into a pivotal stretch of the season, keep an eye on Tuesday night’s clash in Ann Arbor. It’s more than just a battle between two top teams-it’s a litmus test for Nebraska, a measuring stick for Michigan, and a potential turning point in the race for a No. 1 seed. The stakes are high, the margin for error is thin, and the madness of March is already starting to creep in.