When Baylor walks into Mercedes-Benz Stadium on Saturday, the Bears will be carrying the underdog label against Auburn. That outlook has been shaped by a few things: Dave Aranda’s presumed hot seat in Waco, and the buzz around Auburn’s new coach-quarterback pairing of Alex Golesh and Byrum Brown.
Brown, for his part, doesn’t sound like someone losing sleep over Baylor’s defense.
"They play hard. They fly around to the ball.
They're sound. We're going to have to be smart with the ball, find the open guys, and let our playmakers make plays," Brown said about facing Baylor's defense.
"That's the name of the game. Just be us, be our offense, and we should be just fine."
His confidence points to a bigger issue for Baylor, one that has been building for years. The Bears simply haven’t produced enough top-end NFL talent to stack up consistently with the better teams they face, especially inside the Big 12. At this level, talent doesn’t guarantee wins, but not having enough of it can put a program behind the eight ball fast.
Baylor did have a strong run in the late 2000s and early 2010s, when it sent six players to the first round of the NFL Draft between 2009 and 2016. That group included Jason Smith, who went No. 2 overall, and Robert Griffin III, who also went No. 2.
But the pipeline has gone dry since Corey Coleman went No. 15 overall in 2016. Ten drafts have passed without Baylor producing another first-round pick. Among the other 15 current Big 12 programs, only two have gone longer without one, and Kansas is one of them.
The gap looks even wider when you zoom in on the rest of the draft board. Thirteen of the Big 12’s 16 teams have had at least one first-round selection since the start of this decade, and seven of them have done it in the last two drafts alone. Baylor did snap a draft drought earlier this year, but the two Bears picked both came in the sixth round, more than 150 spots after the last first-rounder came off the board.
The numbers are even tougher on Baylor when you look at the first three rounds. Over the last 10 drafts, the Bears have produced just five Day 1 and Day 2 picks.
The NFL results there haven’t helped the story much either. Siaki Ika, Denzel Mims, Tyquan Thornton, and JT Woods all failed to make it through their rookie contracts.
Jalen Pitre is the one real success story, becoming a starting defensive back for the Houston Texans.
Most of the Big 12 has done much better by that measure. Ten conference programs have generated more Day 1 and Day 2 picks over that same stretch, and Utah has nearly doubled Baylor’s total with 14 players selected in the opening three rounds.
The old model of spending years building a roster and waiting for it to mature feels less useful now, and Baylor doesn’t have to look far to see how quickly things can change. Texas Tech has shown how funding and organizational alignment can raise the level of a roster in a hurry. In 2026, the Red Raiders produced five top-100 picks, matching Baylor’s total from the last 10 years.
If Baylor is going to change its trajectory this season, it likely needs one of its best players to make a real leap in 2026. DJ Lagway is the name that fits that bill.
Lagway arrived at Florida in 2024 as the No. 1-rated dual-threat quarterback in his recruiting class. After a strong freshman year, he entered the 2025 season as one of the Heisman Trophy favorites and, according to Pro Football Focus, a top-10 quarterback in the country.
Health issues and a collapsing Florida regime held him back last season. Even so, the talent that once had some evaluators projecting him as the No. 1 overall pick in 2027 is still there.
If Lagway can flash the same upside he showed at Florida while cutting down on the costly mistakes that hurt the Gators, NFL teams will notice. And if that happens, Baylor will have something it badly needs: a true difference-maker at quarterback.
In Other News...
LSU Just Dropped Auburn Into A Fresh SEC Eligibility Fight
A Louisiana judges ruling in favor of LSU players Zxavian Harris and DaeQuan Wright has added another layer to the SECs eligibility headaches just as the season is getting underway. The court allowed both players to regain college football eligibility despite their recent NFL roster status, and it blocked the SEC, NCAA and LSU from taking actions that would hurt their standing, putting the conference in a spot Auburn fans know well: another rules fight with real on-field consequences.
Harris and Wright have already been practicing with LSU as the Tigers prepare for their opener against Clemson, and the final decision on whether to add them to the roster now sits with LSU. For Auburn, the broader significance is hard to miss. Anything that shifts the SECs eligibility landscape can ripple through the league, and this latest ruling only deepens the uncertainty around how schools and conference officials will handle similar cases moving forward. [Read more 🡒]
Auburn Suddenly Has Another SEC Problem To Watch Closely
Auburns attention may be split between the usual late-summer roster questions and the broader SEC chessboard, because a new court ruling has suddenly opened the door for more than 40 athletes to remain eligible under NCAA and league rules. Among the players affected are former NFL players Zxavian Harris and DaeQuan Wright, both expected to land on LSUs football roster, a development that could ripple beyond Baton Rouge as conference programs monitor how the eligibility landscape is being handled.
The SEC is planning to appeal the injunction, and it has also filed a separate lawsuit aimed at enforcing new punishments against teams that add ex-professional players. For Auburn and the rest of the league, the practical issue is less about one roster move than the possibility of a longer fight over who can play, who can be added, and what penalties might follow while the legal process continues to work itself out. [Read more 🡒]
Auburns First Captains Under Alex Golesh Just Sent A Clear Message
Auburn named five captains for its upcoming game against Baylor, giving Alex Golesh a first look at which players the team is leaning on as his tenure begins. Quarterback Byrum Brown, safety Champ Anthony, offensive lineman Cole Best, safety Cade Carlson and linebacker Elijah Melendez will wear the honors when the Tigers open at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta as part of the Aflac Kickoff.
The list says plenty about how Auburn wants to frame this matchup: leadership on both sides of the ball, from the quarterback to the trenches to the back end of the defense. For Golesh, it is also an early snapshot of the voices in the room as he gets ready for a spotlight game that will serve as his debut on the Auburn sideline. [Read more 🡒]