Auburn's recent rollercoaster of performances has kept fans on the edge of their seats, especially with that crucial victory over Kentucky. Despite dropping six of their last seven, that win is a lifeline for the Tigers' tournament dreams.
The latest setback at Oklahoma, however, means Auburn might have to battle it out in Dayton to secure a spot in the NCAA tournament. Current projections suggest a First Four appearance, where they'd face off against another team on the bubble before advancing to the main event.
What's working in Auburn's favor is the absence of a "bad" loss this season. Their only defeat outside the current tournament projections was against Oklahoma, a team bolstered by strong SEC metrics, making it a Quad 1 game.
But Auburn's upcoming matches against Ole Miss and LSU are critical. Losing at home to either could spell disaster, as both teams are languishing near the bottom of the SEC standings.
Ole Miss, in particular, presents a Quad 3 risk, so Auburn must take care of business in Neville Arena.
Head Coach Steven Pearl didn't mince words after the Oklahoma loss, declaring the next game a must-win. The Tigers need to focus on securing these victories to bolster their resume, possibly with a First Four appearance.
Here's a glimpse at the latest bracket projections for Auburn:
- CBS Sports: 10-seed vs. Wisconsin (+1)
- ESPN: 11-seed (First Four) vs. TCU (-1)
- FOX Sports: 11-seed (First Four) vs. Santa Clara (0)
- Bracketville: 11-seed (First Four) vs. New Mexico (0)
- Blogging the Bracket: 10-seed vs. NC State (-1)
- Bracket Matrix average: 10.14 average seed (-0.86)
- Torvik analytics: 9.4 average seed (-0.7)
Auburn's top-ranked NET strength of schedule is a significant asset as Selection Sunday approaches. Despite the losses, no team has faced a tougher slate this season. Additionally, the NCAA's consideration of Alabama's ineligible player, Charles Bediako, could mitigate the impact of losses to the Crimson Tide.
Looking ahead, the regular-season finale against Alabama is more of a bonus. A win would be fantastic, but a loss to a top-20 NET team on the road won't severely damage Auburn's credentials.
Breaking down Auburn's schedule using the NCAA's quadrant system highlights their resilience. The Tigers have navigated the toughest schedule in college basketball, securing five Quad 1 wins.
Here's a quick rundown of the quadrant system, which classifies games based on opponent strength and location:
- Quadrant 1: vs. NET 1-30 (home), vs.
NET 1-50 (neutral), vs. NET 1-75 (away)
- Quadrant 2: vs. NET 31-75 (home), vs.
NET 51-100 (neutral), vs. NET 76-135 (away)
- Quadrant 3: vs. NET 76-160 (home), vs.
NET 101-200 (neutral), vs. NET 135-240 (away)
- Quadrant 4: vs. NET 161-353 (home), vs.
NET 201-353 (neutral), vs. NET 241-353 (away)
Auburn's remaining schedule includes a Quad 1 matchup at Alabama and a Quad 2 game against LSU. The Tigers have shown they can compete with the best, and now it's about finishing strong to secure their tournament spot.