The Auburn Tigers are about to open their season, and one of the louder preseason calls around this matchup comes from Josh Pate, who thinks Auburn-Baylor has a real shot to turn into a grinder.
Pate didn’t pick Baylor outright, but he did make it clear he expects this one to stay tight. “Baylor versus Auburn could be the game of the week,” Pate said. “This, one thousand percent, has fourth-quarter chaos, game of week potential written all over it… I don’t have a strong lean here, but I’m gonna go Auburn to win the game, but I do go Baylor to cover [-6.5].”
His reasoning centers heavily on Baylor quarterback DJ Lagway, a former top national prospect whose first two college seasons haven’t gone the way many expected. If Baylor is going to keep this close, Lagway will likely have to do more than just play a solid game.
Still, Pate singled out one area where he feels comfortable trusting Auburn. “In a game like this, I think I can trust Auburn’s defense,” Pate said. “But I do think there is something sneaky about Baylor that makes this really tight and a fourth-quarter game.”
There’s also a lot of change on the Baylor side heading into 2026, especially with the roster and coaching staff. The biggest shift on defense is the arrival of Kansas State’s Joe Klanderman as defensive coordinator this offseason.
Golesh addressed that matchup knowledge in a press conference, noting his past coaching battles against Klanderman, so there is some familiarity in the building. Even so, Baylor’s new defensive look means Auburn is still facing a Week 1 puzzle.
That uncertainty matters because both programs have plenty riding on the opener. Auburn is trying to reset after two failed coaching hires, while Baylor head coach Dave Aranda is under pressure to prove he should still be in charge in Waco.
That’s why Pate’s read on the spread may not be far off from how this game actually plays out. Even so, the broader view still has Auburn as the favorite to start the Alex Golesh era with a 1-0 record.
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