Just about nothing in the SEC looked normal in Week 7, and that’s exactly why the conference’s final-record picture got so messy. Auburn walked into Georgia and left with a 27-24 win.
Florida, which had been buried by its own defensive problems, knocked off Texas by the same score. Kentucky kept rolling.
Tennessee flattened Alabama. And suddenly the league’s margin for error got a lot smaller.
That chaos shows up in the way the rest of the season now looks for the conference. A handful of teams are being funneled toward the same landing spot, while a few others are hanging somewhere between surprise contender and total mess.
Alabama’s 26-10 loss to Tennessee made the Crimson Tide the week’s biggest disappointment. The offense never found itself, and the road trip to LSU now looks more dangerous than promising. Still, the projection holds Alabama at 9-3.
Georgia, despite the ugly loss to Auburn, stays in much better shape. The Bulldogs are still pegged at 11-1, though the next stretch matters.
The upcoming bye week comes before what could be the two toughest games left, and the trip to Ole Miss feels like a real toss-up. Kirby Smart is not expected to see a repeat of last week’s mistake-filled mess.
Tennessee’s dominant showing over Alabama changes the tone around the Vols in a big way. An 11-1 finish is still on the table, but the projection lands at 10-2 with LSU and Kentucky still ahead. That road game this weekend carries extra weight.
Ole Miss also looks like a team that benefited from the latest round of results. The Rebels beat Missouri 31-3 and now get a schedule that suddenly seems more manageable.
Texas is stumbling, Georgia looks more vulnerable, and if Ole Miss can split one of those remaining marquee games, the CFP path opens up fast. The Rebels are projected at 9-3.
Kentucky keeps stacking wins, and the Wildcats are now in the actual CFP conversation. They beat Oklahoma 21-13 and are sitting at 6-1, with a 9-3 finish projected.
The schedule still has teeth, though. After Vanderbilt and an off week, the final four opponents - Tennessee, Florida, Missouri, and Louisville - will decide whether this becomes a very good season or something more memorable.
Florida’s 27-24 win over Texas pushed the Gators to 5-2 and back into a more believable range. They’ve been hard to pin down all season, but the projection puts them at 8-4. Oklahoma, Vanderbilt, and Florida State are viewed as wins, while the Kentucky game could decide whether Florida reaches a ninth victory.
Texas, meanwhile, took another step backward. The Longhorns are 4-2 after the loss to Florida, and the forecast drops them to 8-4. The talent is there for more, but execution has been a problem, and the remaining games with Ole Miss, LSU, and Missouri are no gifts.
Auburn’s road upset of Georgia was the gutsiest win of the weekend, but it doesn’t move the Tigers much in the projection. Auburn is still slotted at 6-6. Arkansas and Samford should add wins, but LSU, Ole Miss, Mississippi State, and Alabama are steep climbs.
LSU’s 31-0 win over Mississippi State got the Tigers back on track, and they’re projected at 9-3. The expectation is that LSU drops one of the big games still left - Alabama, Texas at home, or Tennessee on the road - while handling the rest.
Missouri’s 31-3 loss to Ole Miss makes the Tigers tricky to sort through, but the projection lands at 8-4. The November stretch could swing things either way, especially with Texas and Georgia on the road in back-to-back games. Still, home games against Kentucky and Oklahoma could provide a late cushion.
Mississippi State, beaten 31-0 by LSU, is projected at 7-5. Injury issues made for a difficult week, and depth could become a real problem with Oklahoma and Texas next. November looks more favorable, and the Egg Bowl closes the year.
Oklahoma dropped to Kentucky and is projected at 6-6. The defense has been gritty, but John Mateer “is as lost as a quarterback can be.”
There’s still a wide range of outcomes, with home games against South Carolina, Ole Miss, and Texas A&M, plus road trips to Mississippi State, Florida, and Missouri. For now, wins over South Carolina, A&M, and State are the best guess.
South Carolina, off this week, is also projected at 6-6. The Gamecocks are described as flawed but capable of causing problems on any given day.
Tennessee and Georgia at home are tough asks, but Arkansas and Oklahoma on the road offer chances, and Clemson is not seen as intimidating. This week’s game against Tennessee could shift the season upward in a hurry.
Arkansas got a much-needed 31-21 road win over Vanderbilt, but the projection still has the Razorbacks at 3-9. South Carolina at home appears to be the best remaining chance at another victory.
Texas A&M beat Citadel 41-0, but the Aggies are still projected to finish 5-7. The season may come down to the final two games at Oklahoma and at home against Texas, and as things stand they need more life just to get to six wins.
Vanderbilt, after losing 31-21 at home to Arkansas, is projected at 3-9. That result was enough to leave the Commodores with very little to say.
In Other News...
Auburn Just Lost A Defensive Leader At The Worst Time
Xavier Atkins had become one of Auburns most important defensive pieces this season, so his dismissal from the football program lands at a particularly difficult moment. The junior linebacker had already built out a strong 2025 rsum and was part of the group helping stabilize a unit that needed dependable play at the second level.
Now Auburn has to move on without one of its top defensive leaders after his suspension during the win over Georgia. The Tigers will have to lean harder on the linebackers still standing, including sophomore Elijah Melendez, as they try to keep the defense steady with the schedule still moving fast. [Read more 🡒]
Lane Kiffin Just Added More Intrigue To Auburn's LSU Showdown
Lane Kiffin has already started stirring the pot ahead of LSUs trip to Auburn, and in doing so he added another layer to a game that was already carrying plenty of weight. Kiffin said he was pulling for Auburn to knock off Georgia in the Tigers recent matchup because LSU is next on the schedule, and he also acknowledged how difficult it is to deal with Auburn at home. For Auburn fans, it was the kind of candid opponent commentary that only sharpens attention on a matchup that was already going to draw plenty of it.
The timing matters because LSU is trying to steady itself in the SEC, where recent losses have only increased the pressure around Kiffins tenure. Auburn, meanwhile, gets a chance to play spoiler on its own turf, with the ripple effects reaching far beyond one Saturday night. If LSU slips again, the impact would not stop at the standings, and the stakes around this one figure to keep rising the closer kickoff gets. [Read more 🡒]
Auburn Just Delivered The Win That Changes Alex Golesh Expectations
Auburns 27-24 upset of No. 1 Georgia did more than snap a nine-game losing streak in the rivalry, it gave the program a result that instantly reframes what comes next under Alex Golesh. The Tigers took down a Georgia team that had been rolling under Kirby Smart, and they did it with Byrum Brown driving the offense and delivering the kind of balanced performance Auburn has been searching for.
Browns work as both a runner and passer helped Auburn keep the Bulldogs off balance, and his final drive was the one that mattered most in closing out the win. Golesh, after the game, pointed to the backing the program has received from former Auburn legends, a reminder that this kind of victory tends to bring the past and present together fast at a place where expectations never stay quiet for long. [Read more 🡒]