Welcome to the high-stakes world of college basketball's bubble watch. Auburn's recent skid has placed them squarely in the Quad 2 category after a tough 91-85 loss to Mississippi State.
Coach Steven Pearl's squad has faced one of the toughest schedules in the nation, but now the losses are stacking up. With a crucial home game against Kentucky on the horizon this Saturday, the Tigers' tournament hopes are hanging in the balance.
"Saturday is do-or-die for our season," Pearl emphasized post-game in Starkville. "A loss could cement us on the bubble and potentially out of the tournament.
It's time to focus, cut out distractions, and aim for a win. That’s our sole focus."
Let's dive into the latest bracket predictions for Auburn. The numbers in parentheses indicate changes from last Friday's projections.
Latest Auburn Bracketology (Feb. 20):
- CBS Sports: First four out (-3)
- ESPN: 10-seed vs.
Villanova (-2)
- FOX Sports: 11-seed vs.
BYU (-2)
- Bracketville: 10-seed vs.
Wisconsin (-1)
- Blogging the Bracket: 9-seed vs.
Iowa (-2)
- Bracket Matrix average: 9.28 average seed (-0.97)
- Torvik analytics: 8.7 average seed (-0.9)
In a mock bracket conducted by national media, Auburn was also voted a 10-seed. The Tigers boast the No. 1 spot nationally in the NET strength of schedule, a significant factor as Selection Sunday approaches. Despite their losses, Auburn's challenging schedule is unmatched, and the NCAA's recent acknowledgment regarding Alabama's ineligible player might soften the blow of some defeats.
However, Auburn must start converting their tough matchups into wins. With three games remaining against lower-rated SEC teams-Oklahoma, Ole Miss, and LSU-these matchups are crucial. An 8-10 finish in SEC play might just sneak them into the First Four, but anything less could spell the end of their tournament dreams.
Understanding the Quadrant System:
The NCAA uses a quadrant system to evaluate team performance, dividing games into four categories based on opponent strength and game location. This system helps determine a team's strength of record.
- Quadrant 1: vs. NET 1-30 (home), NET 1-50 (neutral), NET 1-75 (away)
- Quadrant 2: vs. NET 31-75 (home), NET 51-100 (neutral), NET 76-135 (away)
- Quadrant 3: vs. NET 76-160 (home), NET 101-200 (neutral), NET 135-240 (away)
- Quadrant 4: vs. NET 161-353 (home), NET 201-353 (neutral), NET 241-353 (away)
This system means a team could face the same opponent in consecutive games, yet the games might fall into different quadrants. For instance, Auburn's earlier win at Ole Miss was a Quad 2 victory, but hosting Ole Miss later could be a Quad 3 outcome due to the home-court advantage.
As Auburn gears up for a pivotal stretch, their performance in these remaining games will be crucial in determining their March Madness fate.