Auburn’s first game under Alex Golesh is drawing plenty of noise, and the computers are leaning the Tigers’ way.
With Saturday’s season opener against Baylor set for Atlanta, ESPN’s Football Power Index and Bill Connelly’s SP+ both give Auburn the edge. The Tigers are listed at -7.5, though that number hasn’t stopped plenty of observers - including Josh Pate - from thinking Baylor can hang around, cover, or maybe even pull the upset.
The models don’t call it a runaway. ESPN’s FPI gives Auburn a 72.9% chance to leave Atlanta with a win, while SP+ puts the Tigers at 69%. Connelly’s projection also has Auburn winning by 7.7 points, which lines up pretty neatly with the spread.
A big reason this game has drawn so much attention is the quarterback matchup. Baylor’s DJ Lagway has long had the talent to flip a game on its head. He was the top quarterback in his class when he committed to Florida, but the last two seasons have been defined by the kind of interception problems that can wreck an offense in a hurry.
Baylor coach Dave Aranda says Lagway was being held back at Florida and is improving quickly now, but that’s still just talk until the ball is snapped in Atlanta. The arm talent is there. The question is whether it shows up when it counts.
Auburn has its own game-breaker in Byrum Brown, and he brings a different kind of danger. Brown was the only player in football last season to rush for more than 1,000 yards and throw for more than 3,000, and he finished with the second-most touchdowns in football, behind Heisman winner Fernando Mendoza.
So yes, both quarterbacks have the kind of juice that can swing this thing. But for now, the numbers - and most of the analysts - are siding with Brown and Auburn.
In Other News...
Auburns Atlanta Opener Created A Tradeoff Fans Immediately Noticed
Moving Auburns season opener to Mercedes-Benz Stadium gave the program a different kind of stage for its Aflac Kickoff Game, and it came with a tradeoff fans noticed right away. The atmosphere was not what Jordan-Hare Stadium would have delivered, but Auburn still brought a strong contingent to Atlanta and made sure the place did not feel like a neutral site for long.
Athletics director John Cohen said the move was shaped in part by a lucrative NIL deal for players, which gave the decision a broader football-business context beyond the usual scheduling conversation. Some season ticket holders stayed home instead of making the trip, but Auburn still held the majority of fan support and carried a 10-7 halftime lead over Baylor, a sign the Tigers made the arrangement work even if the crowd size did not match a home opener. [Read more 🡒]
Former Auburn QB Is Finally Getting The Chance He Never Had
After a frustrating start to his college career, Hank Brown is finally getting the kind of opportunity that never quite came together at Auburn. The former Tigers quarterback, a 3-star recruit in the 2023 class, transferred to Iowa before the 2025 season and spent much of that first year waiting for a real opening while seeing limited action.
Brown stayed with the Hawkeyes into 2026, and the payoff arrived in Week 1 when he was named the starter against Northern Illinois. He rewarded that trust with a touchdown pass, a small but meaningful step for a quarterback whose path has been more about patience and persistence than instant results. [Read more 🡒]
Auburn's Offensive Line Battle May Be Smaller Than Fans Expected
Auburns offensive line competition has drawn plenty of attention this spring, but Alex Golesh made it sound like the picture is a little less crowded than some fans may have expected. The Tigers have eight linemen who have earned the right to play, yet Golesh said the staff is not looking to rotate bodies simply to keep people involved. If the group up front is holding up well, the starting five can stay put.
The spot still worth watching is left guard, where Auburn continues to evaluate options as camp moves along. Goleshs message was that the offensive line will be judged by performance and by the demands of each game, not by any preset plan to shuffle players in and out. For a unit trying to settle in, that leaves some room for competition, but not the kind of wholesale rotation some around the program may have been anticipating. [Read more 🡒]