It’s Week 5, and the upset board is loaded again.
Last week was the best run of the season so far for these picks, with three of five coming through, including Iowa’s buzzer-beating win over Michigan. That kind of hit rate is exactly the goal here, and there’s another batch of live dogs on deck for the 2026 college football slate.
North Texas is one of the first names on the list. Tulsa does get quarterback Baylor Hayes back, but the Mean Green still look capable of going into Skelly Field and stealing one.
North Texas has outperformed expectations after losing Eric Morris, Drew Mestemaker, Caleb Hawkins and others to Oklahoma State, and Neal Brown has the program off to a strong start. Through four weeks, UNT ranks 14th nationally in yards per play.
Tulsa, meanwhile, has looked shaky since its Week 1 win over Oklahoma State, surviving a close one against Sam Houston State before getting blown out by Arkansas as a touchdown underdog.
Northwestern is another upset pick that jumps out, especially with the setting. This is the Wildcats’ first home game in their brand new Ryan Field, so the homefield edge should be real.
Quarterback Aiden Chiles also looks like a difference-maker, and Northwestern’s offensive staff has serious firepower with Chip Kelly calling the shots as offensive coordinator and Jerry Neuheisel coaching the quarterbacks. Penn State comes in after an embarrassing collapse against Wisconsin, which only adds to the case for the home dog.
Auburn over Tennessee is a call built around quarterback play. Faizon Brandon may not be ready to handle this level every week, and his production has fallen off sharply against P4 competition this year.
Byrum Brown hasn’t exactly lit it up, but Auburn still gets the nod at quarterback because of his experience. If Brandon has another rough outing like the ones against Georgia Tech and Texas, Auburn has a real shot to win outright.
Kentucky is another team worth circling. South Carolina looks like it may be heading toward the end of the Shane Beamer era, especially after never truly recovering from its 9-3 season in 2024.
LaNorris Sellers has not been effective since the opener against Kent State, and now the Gamecocks will also be without star pass rusher Dylan Stewart because of suspension. Kentucky was poor against South Alabama last time out, but the staff had extra time to prepare for South Carolina, and the Wildcats are being backed here because of the coaching edge and the more talented offense.
Pick: Kentucky to win (43% on Novig)
The final upset pick is Cal over UNLV, and this one is more about market value than confidence in either side. Cal hasn’t been easy to watch, and Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele has been wildly disappointing by any metric.
Still, there’s skepticism here about UNLV, too. The Rebels are not viewed as a strong team in this spot, and there isn’t much reason to make them a favorite against a P4 opponent.
Cal was a 2.5-point home underdog against Clemson last week and is +2.5 again in Las Vegas this week. That comparison isn’t perfect, but the spread is close enough to suggest this may be the low point on Cal.
In Other News...
Auburns Pass Rush Just Got A Huge Week 5 Opening
Auburns defensive front may have landed an early break heading into Week 5, with Tennessee forced to reshuffle its offensive line after a lower-body injury sidelined Moe for the rest of the 2026 season. The move leaves the Volunteers with work to do up front, and the coaching staff is already planning to shift Sham Umarov to left guard while turning to Donovan Haslam on the right side.
For Auburn, that kind of personnel change matters because the Tigers have been looking for ways to stress protection and create pressure off the edge. Any disruption along Tennessees line can alter how an offense handles twists, stunts and blitz looks, and it gives Auburns pass rush a clearer opening to dictate terms early in the game. [Read more 🡒]
Charles Barkley Sends Auburn Fans A Message They May Not Like
Charles Barkley is still sounding like one of Auburns most recognizable boosters, and on a recent appearance on The Next Round he used that platform to steer the conversation back to the Tigers own house. He backed both the football and basketball coaches, urging fans to be patient and to spend more time appreciating what Auburn is trying to build instead of measuring everything against rival programs.
Barkleys basketball comments came with praise for the progress the program has made, and he also sounded encouraged by the direction of the football team under Alex Golesh. For a fan base that can get restless quickly, the message was clear enough: the bigger picture matters, even when the short-term results can be frustrating. [Read more 🡒]
Tennessee Suddenly Has A Protection Problem Auburn Fans Will Notice
Tennessees offensive line took a major hit when senior guard Wendell Moe went down with a lower-body injury and is now expected to miss the rest of the season. The Arizona transfer had become one of the SECs most trusted interior linemen, earning first-team all-conference honors and giving the Volunteers a stabilizing presence in front of the quarterback.
For Auburn fans, the ripple effect is worth watching because Tennessee now has to reshuffle protection at a spot that was helping keep the pocket clean for Faizon Brandon. Losing a player of Moes caliber changes the entire feel of that line, and it adds a layer of uncertainty to a unit that already had to carry a heavy load. [Read more 🡒]