Rain could end up shaping Florida-Auburn in a big way when the teams meet in Week 3, and if the weather turns sloppy in Auburn, that tilts things toward the Tigers.
Storms have already rolled through the Plains, and the conditions around Jordan-Hare Stadium looked rough enough that a washout is at least on the table. Josh Pate posted video showing the kind of weather Auburn and Florida may have to deal with in what would be the SEC head coaching debuts for Alex Golesh and Jon Sumrall.
Quick weather update from Auburn pic.twitter.com/ij3F5t78gh
- Josh Pate (@JoshPateCFB) September 19, 2026
The timing only adds to the uncertainty. With Florida State-Alabama already delayed, it is reasonable to question whether Florida and Auburn will kick off cleanly, especially with the Storm Prediction Center keeping a marginal risk - level 1 out of 5 - for severe thunderstorms across parts of east and northeast Alabama. James Spann said the main concerns are strong winds and frequent lightning.
If the game turns into a mess, Auburn’s roster is built to handle it.
The Tigers’ backfield gives them a clear edge in wet conditions. Jeremiah Cobb, Omar Mabson II, and Byrum Brown all fit the kind of game rain can create. Brown, in particular, gets more difficult to track when the footing gets bad, though his deep passing game loses some of its punch if he can’t secure the ball.
Brown has one of the strongest arms in football, but he is the kind of physical dual-threat who excels when things get ugly.
Cobb and Mabson bring the sort of downhill running style that can wear on a defense when the field gets heavy. Auburn has dealt with some interior offensive line issues over its first two games, but Florida’s run defense has not yet been stressed the way Auburn is about to stress it.
That said, Florida is bringing its own problem for Auburn to solve.
Jadan Baugh has been one of the most dominant backs in the country, and he leads the SEC in nearly every major rushing category, including yardage and touchdowns. Auburn’s defense has held up well against the run so far, sitting No. 23 nationally and not allowing a run longer than 12 yards. Linebacker Elijah Melendez has been central to that effort, posting an 86.9 run defense grade from PFF and piling up 18 tackles and three tackles for loss against Baylor and Southern Miss.
Unstoppable force, meet immovable object.
If Aaron Philo is less of a factor through the air, Baugh could become the player who decides the game on the ground. DJ Durkin’s defense is going to be tested either way, but the Tigers’ path looks cleaner if rain pushes this matchup into a run-first fight.
In Other News...
Auburns SEC Opener Exposed A Problem Tigers Cant Ignore
Auburns SEC opener in Gainesville brought the kind of reality check that can linger well beyond one September afternoon. The Tigers fell 44-39 to Florida, and while the final margin suggested a game that stayed within reach, the bigger concern was how often Auburns defense had no answer when the Gators needed it most. Florida moved the ball with too much ease on key downs, and Auburns offense, while capable of making things interesting late, never found the kind of steady rhythm that can carry a team in conference play.
For head coach Alex Golesh, it was the first major SEC test of his tenure, and it exposed how much work still remains. Auburn is now 2-1 overall and 0-1 in the league, with a loss that leaves both sides of the ball under scrutiny. The defenses inability to get off the field and the offenses inconsistency are problems that cant be brushed aside, especially with the conference schedule now in motion and no shortage of tougher nights ahead. [Read more 🡒]
Auburns Coaching Choice Already Looks Worse Than Fans Feared
Auburns coaching search ended with Alex Golesh, but the early returns around the SEC have only sharpened the debate over what the Tigers passed up. Jon Sumrall landed at Florida instead, and the Gators have already shown why his name carried so much momentum. Between Floridas win over Auburn and Sumralls strong first impression as an SEC head coach, the contrast has been hard for Tigers fans to ignore.
For Auburn, the frustration has come with familiar problems on the field, especially on defense, where the Tigers have continued to struggle as Golesh gets his footing. Sumrall, meanwhile, has looked like a coach who brought immediate structure and energy to his new job, giving Florida a clean early narrative while Auburn is still searching for one. The race is still young, but the first chapter has not been kind to the Tigers' choice. [Read more 🡒]
Auburns Supposed Strength Suddenly Looks Like A Serious SEC Concern
Auburns defense, the unit that was supposed to travel as a strength, had a rough afternoon against Florida and left plenty of questions behind. The Tigers gave up 44 points and 243 rushing yards in a game that exposed missed tackles and misalignments, two issues that coach Alex Golesh and linebacker Elijah Melendez both pointed to afterward as the kind of breakdowns that cannot linger in SEC play.
Under DJ Durkin, the outing also came with several defensive milestones Auburn would rather not celebrate, a reminder that one bad game can quickly change the conversation around a teams identity. Auburn fell to 2-1 while Florida moved to 3-0, and the challenge now is whether the Tigers can clean up the details fast enough before opponents start treating that film like a roadmap. [Read more 🡒]