You can bury yourself in preseason numbers if you want. Offensive line starts, returning production, strength of schedule - the whole buffet.
But here’s a cleaner way to squint into the SEC crystal ball, and it doesn’t require a calculator: did a team take its starting quarterback to SEC Media Days?
If the answer is yes, history says that team probably isn’t about to cut down the conference. That’s the heart of the Scarbo Knows Theory of Popularity, a no-math, yes-or-no test that has been especially brutal on Auburn and Alabama.
Next week in Tampa, that question points in two very different directions. Auburn, Georgia, Kentucky, Oklahoma, Ole Miss, Mississippi State, South Carolina, Texas and Texas A&M are all bringing their starter. Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, LSU, Missouri, Tennessee and Vanderbilt are not, either because the job still isn’t settled or because QB1 isn’t being sent out front yet.
The historical record behind that split is hard to ignore. SEC Football Media Days started in Birmingham in 1985, and the league began bringing players in 1989.
Strip out the 1989-91 stretch before the SEC Championship Game existed, and from 1992 through 2025 there were 33 Media Days, with 2020 wiped out by COVID. In those 33 seasons, only 11 eventual SEC champions had sent their starting quarterback to the event.
Twenty-two had not.
That means the teams that brought their starter were twice as likely to miss out on the conference title as to win it.
There is a recent wrinkle, though. The trend has bent a little in the last few years, with three of the last four and four of the last six SEC champions bringing their starting QB.
Georgia has been a big reason for that, sending Stetson Bennett in 2022, Carson Beck in 2024 and Gunner Stockton in 2025. Stockton is set to make another trip to Media Days next week.
Even with that shift, Alabama and Auburn have kept the old rule alive in the harshest possible way. Alabama has won 11 SEC titles since 1992, and not one of those teams opened the season with its starting quarterback at Media Days. Auburn’s three SEC Championship Game winners - Jason Campbell, Cam Newton and Nick Marshall - followed the same pattern.
The flip side is even more striking. Alabama and Auburn have combined to send 19 quarterbacks to Media Days, and none of those seasons ended with a conference title. Alabama’s Jay Barker, Tyler Watts, Greg McElroy, AJ McCarron, Tua Tagovailoa, Bryce Young and Jalen Milroe, along with Auburn’s Campbell, all did win SEC titles and attend Media Days - just not in the same year.
So if the trend keeps rolling, Alex Golesh won’t be pulling a Gus Malzahn and winning the SEC in his first season at Auburn, since Byrum Brown is headed with him to Tampa. And Kalen DeBoer could end up following Bill Curry, Gene Stallings, Mike DuBose and Nick Saban by winning the SEC in his third year at Alabama, because he isn’t bringing Austin Mack or Keelon Russell to the event.
That’s the strange little July edge this theory offers: over 33 seasons, it has knocked out contenders about two-thirds of the time, and it has been flawless when it comes to Alabama and Auburn.
In Other News...
Auburn Just Revealed The First Faces Of Its Nike Era
Auburns new Nike chapter is starting with a familiar mix of newcomers and returning pieces, and the school made that clear by putting quarterback Byrum Brown, linebacker Xavier Atkins and receivers Keshaun Singleton and Chas Nimrod on its NIL roster for the season. Brown, Singleton and Nimrod all followed coach Alex Golesh from South Florida to Auburn, while Atkins gives the Tigers a proven defensive anchor as the program leans into a fresh look under the swoosh.
The timing matters, too, because Auburn is already looking ahead to a 2026 opener that should bring early national attention. The Tigers will start the season Sept. 5 against Baylor in the Aflac Kickoff Game in Atlanta, a stage that should give these new Nike faces an immediate chance to be part of the programs next big introduction. [Read more 🡒]
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The final stretch has become more complicated, with NIL opportunities and rev share factors weighing heavily as the race tightens. Auburn is still pushing, and even if the announcement does not go its way at first, the door is not necessarily closed for the Tigers down the line, which is why this one feels like more than a single-day recruiting result. [Read more 🡒]
Auburns Future Backfield Looks Even Scarier After Latest RB Ranking
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For Auburn, the appeal goes beyond one standout recruit. Johnson-Cook is part of a backfield class that is shaping up to be loaded, giving the Tigers a chance to stockpile talent at a position that can change the direction of an offense fast. If the early rankings are any indication, Auburn may not just be adding depth in 2027, but building a group that could make the backfield one of the programs most intriguing strengths. [Read more 🡒]