Auburn heads into Saturday as a heavy underdog, but one batch of simulations is pointing to a more manageable night for the Tigers than the betting line suggests.
SportsLine ran 1,000 simulations of the Auburn-Georgia matchup and, per CBS Sports’ Ross Kelly, found that Auburn (+19.5, 49.5) covers the spread nearly 60% of the time. Kelly called the game a possible trap spot for Georgia after the Bulldogs’ win over Alabama, noting that Georgia could have its eye on a bye in Week 8.
“Auburn (+19.5, 49.5) covers the huge line at Georgia nearly 60% of the time,” he wrote. “Coming off a win over Alabama, and with Georgia possibly looking forward to its bye in Week 8, this matchup has trap game written all over it. When UGA beat Bama last year, the Dawgs then outright lost their next game, and Georgia is just 11-17 ATS (39%) after a win since the start of 2024.”
That said, Auburn still faces a steep climb. The Tigers are coming off a bye after a loss to Tennessee, and they also lost star linebacker Xavier Atkins to a suspension earlier this week for an undisclosed reason.
Georgia’s home dominance under Kirby Smart only adds to the challenge. Smart is 60-5 at home with the Bulldogs, a record that underscores how difficult it has been for opponents to walk out of Athens with a win.
Still, the model sees Auburn’s best path as one built around the run game and a slower pace. Kelly said Auburn’s “three-headed rushing attack of Byrum Brown, Jeremiah Cobb and Omar Mabson II is forecasted to reach 125 yards,” which, in turn, could keep Georgia from stretching the margin.
“Auburn is well rested off a bye, and it's three-headed rushing attack of Byrum Brown, Jeremiah Cobb and Omar Mabson II is forecasted to reach 125 yards,” Kelly continued. “That slows the game down and prevents Georgia from running up the score, with the model also calling for the Under to connect in well over 50% of simulations.”
That would be a welcome script for Auburn, which has had trouble generating much on the ground this season, especially from its running backs. Mabson and Cobb both trail Brown in rushing yards, but the bye week may have given the Tigers a chance to reset and find something more effective against the Bulldogs.
The simulations lean toward a tighter, lower-scoring game than most would expect from a top-ranked Georgia team at home. And for Auburn, that kind of game shape is the only real route that makes sense. A shootout would tilt things heavily toward Georgia.
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