Week 3 is where the college football calendar starts turning mean. Conference games are here, and that usually means the weekend gets a little less tidy and a lot more dangerous for the favorites.
That’s why Auburn is one of the upset spots worth circling in Saturday’s SEC slate. The Tigers open conference play against Florida, and there’s a case to be made that Auburn is walking into this one better prepared for the moment.
Florida, for all the early noise around its numbers and market perception, hasn’t really been tested yet. The Gators have faced Florida Atlantic and an FCS team, which leaves plenty of room for those early evaluations to be inflated.
Auburn, by contrast, already went through a tougher first-week assignment and beat Baylor. That kind of early pressure can matter when the matchup gets closer to even, and this one looks like it fits that mold.
There’s also a broader theme across the board when you start digging into these Week 3 upset candidates: don’t get fooled by the final score alone.
That lesson shows up in the common-opponent angle involving Houston, Texas Tech and Oregon State. Houston beat Oregon State 33-20 in Week 1, while Texas Tech handled the Beavers 35-24 in Week 2.
But the more telling number came when you looked beyond the scoreboard: Texas Tech posted just 352 yards of offense, while Houston piled up 533. In that kind of comparison, the Cougars looked like the sharper team even if the box score didn’t scream it.
That’s part of why there’s hesitation about Texas Tech in this spot. There have been enough warning signs to leave them alone, including a pretty ordinary 33-10 win over an FCS team in Week 1. That isn’t the kind of profile that inspires confidence when you’re looking for an upset angle elsewhere on the board.
Mississippi State is the other team drawing attention here, and the numbers explain why. The Bulldogs have averaged 8.4 yards per play through their first two games, which ranks fourth in the country. On the other side of the ball, they’ve allowed just 4.2 yards per play, good for 25th nationally.
Taylor has been a major reason for that start. He looks like a game-changing quarterback for Mississippi State this season, and that kind of presence gives the Bulldogs a real path to pulling off an upset on Saturday.
In Other News...
Former Auburn WR Could Change How Dangerous Florida Looks Saturday
Eric Singleton Jr.s return to Auburn is suddenly one of the more important storylines to watch heading into Saturday. The former Tigers wideout, now at Florida, has been limited in practice after suffering a left ankle injury in the Gators season opener, and he already sat out the second week of play. For Auburn, the matchup gets a little cleaner if Singleton is unable to go, because he has been one of the more productive receivers in college football throughout his career and gives Florida a dimension the Tigers will have to account for.
Florida has enough around its passing game to keep Auburn honest, but Singletons status could shape how dangerous the Gators look if the game tightens up. Even being available in a limited role would matter, because his ability to stretch coverage and create separation changes the way defenses have to play. Auburn will keep an eye on the injury report, and Florida will be hoping one of its most dynamic targets can get close enough to full strength to make a difference. [Read more 🡒]
Auburn Heads To Florida With One Big Question About Its Identity
Auburn heads into Week 3 looking like a team still trying to settle its football identity, and the trip to Florida offers a clean test of where it stands. The matchup carries plenty of similarity on paper, with both teams leaning on physical play, but ESPN analyst Cole Cubelic sees the Gators holding an edge in that department, especially on offense. Auburn, meanwhile, has had its strongest moments on defense, helped by the return of key edge rushers, even as the offense continues to search for steadier footing.
The line of scrimmage may tell the story, particularly for an Auburn rushing attack that has not yet found the consistency it needs. If the Tigers are going to leave Gainesville with a better sense of who they are, the offensive line will have to answer a lot of the questions that have followed it through the opening weeks. Against a Florida team built to make games feel uncomfortable, Auburns margin for error looks slim, and its identity may be just as dependent on how it handles the trenches as on anything else. [Read more 🡒]
Baylor Suddenly Has A Breakout Star Chasing A Historic Pace
Gavin Freemans move from Oklahoma State to Baylor has already changed the look of the Bears passing game. Through two games, the senior has become a steady target in the offense, piling up catches at a pace that has him sitting atop college football in receptions and helping Baylor get off to a strong start with wins over Auburn and Prairie View A&M.
Freemans early surge has put him on a track that is hard to ignore this early in the season, especially for a Baylor team looking for reliable production through the air. If he keeps drawing that kind of volume, the conversation around his year could shift quickly from a hot start to something much bigger, with record-setting territory suddenly in view. [Read more 🡒]