Florida State is about to give its fans exactly the kind of night that can warp judgment in a hurry.
Ashton Daniels is set to make his FSU debut tonight against New Mexico State at Doak Campbell Stadium, and the setup could hardly be more lopsided. The Seminoles are favored by more than four scores on most sportsbooks and prediction markets, which is why one explosive first impression could send the fanbase spiraling into big-picture conclusions before Week 1 is even finished.
New Mexico State’s defense had a rough season last year, giving up more than 400 yards of offense and 30 points per game. Joe Morris’s 3-3-5 scheme did help the Aggies finish with the No. 14-ranked defense in turnovers during the 2025 season, and there was real effort to patch up the Matador defensive problems from a year ago in recruiting. But Florida State is working with a different level of athlete, and even with Mike Norvell and Tony White carrying their own play-calling flaws against ACC opponents, they are not going to be outclassed enough to turn this into a historic upset.
Daniels does bring some of the traits that can make life interesting for a defense like New Mexico State’s. Over his career, he owns a 3.1% turnover-worthy play rate, and his numbers include 22 interceptions to 24 touchdowns. He has also fumbled 16 times in four years, and he was only the full-time starter for two of those seasons.
Even so, the talent around him should be too much for the Aggies to handle. That’s what makes this such a dangerous spot for overreaction. Daniels is expected to flash the kind of dual-threat ability that can make a desperate Seminoles fanbase start talking like this might be the year Florida State finally breaks out of its two-year slump after the infamous 2023/2024 CFP snub.
The problem is that Week 0 against this opponent won’t tell anyone enough to reach that conclusion. It also won’t stop people from jumping ahead to next week’s matchup with SMU, or even to Week 3 against Alabama.
Daniels already gave Florida State a preview of the kind of performance that can fuel that sort of belief. His 2025 Iron Bowl outing produced 367 total yards in a gritty but inefficient showing during Auburn’s 27-24 loss, and that may already have some Seminoles thinking ahead to a trip to Bryant-Denny Stadium in a few weeks.
Auburn, meanwhile, has its own reason not to get caught up in Daniels’ night. Tiger fans should not spend much time worrying about FOMO if he lights it up against New Mexico State, or fall for any of the usual “gotchas” that come with a big performance against a lesser opponent. Daniels would have been a strong backup for Byrum Brown in Alex Golesh and Joel Gordon’s offense, but his price tag made that unrealistic from the start.
He almost got DJ Durkin the head coaching job during the final month of the 2025 season.
Instead, Daniels has landed where he needed to be: in a starting role at a Power 4 program. The hope for Auburn is that Golesh is giving the Tigers what they need, too, though that answer won’t come quickly. The jury is still out for at least another week.
Daniels probably will look like a star tonight. Auburn may or may not begin the Golesh era the right way next weekend against Baylor in Atlanta.
For now, the smart play is patience. Daniels can play well, Florida State can win comfortably, and Auburn can still be fine without him. Reality will have its say soon enough.
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Alex Golesh Already Faces A Tough Year 1 Standard At Auburn
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Mike Gittens put the pressure in blunt terms by saying Auburn needs at least eight wins for the season to count as a success. The reasoning is tied to both the schedule and the belief that Goleshs offense can translate quickly, which leaves little room for growing pains once the games begin. For Auburn, the appeal is obvious: a fresh start, a coach with a clear identity, and a chance to finally move beyond the cycle of disappointing results. [Read more 🡒]