Ole Miss enters Week 9 with its College Football Playoff path looking a lot tighter than it did a few weeks ago, and Saturday’s meeting with Auburn now carries a little extra edge. The Rebels are still sitting on quality wins, but losses to Florida and Texas have left their résumé hanging by a thread ahead of a tough closing stretch that includes No. 3 Georgia in Week 10.
Even with that pressure building, the betting market is still giving Ole Miss plenty of respect at home. The Rebels are favored by nearly two touchdowns, but the bigger question is whether they can cover that kind of number without one of their biggest weapons. Star running back Kewan Lacy has been ruled out with a shoulder injury, and that changes the feel of this matchup in a hurry.
Trinidad Chambliss will still be the centerpiece for Ole Miss. His Heisman stock took another hit after the loss to Texas, when he threw three interceptions and dropped all the way to +3000 after entering Week 8 at +650. The numbers still show a quarterback producing at a high level overall: he has completed 63.7 percent of his passes for 1,926 yards, 16 touchdowns and seven interceptions, while also scoring six times on the ground.
The problem is that those numbers no longer stack up with the top names in the Heisman race, and he’ll have to deal with an Auburn defense that sits 85th in the country in success rate in 2026. Ole Miss, meanwhile, has been one of the more efficient offenses around, ranking 16th in adjusted EPA/Play and inside the top 30 in success rate.
Auburn comes in at 4-3, but this team isn’t easy to dismiss. Byrum Brown and Co. own a signature win over Georgia, which gives the Tigers a danger factor even if the record doesn’t jump off the page. They did come back down to earth in Week 8, though, losing by 21 to LSU, the same LSU team Ole Miss beat earlier this season.
The Tigers’ best path here may be to lean on the run game. Auburn has been stronger on the ground this season, ranking 36th in EPA/Rush and 57th in run play success rate. That’s the side of the ball that could help them stay in the game, especially with Ole Miss missing Lacy.
That absence matters more because the Rebels have already shown a vulnerability when he’s not on the field. Ole Miss lost the one game Lacy missed, falling to Florida by multiple touchdowns.
The Rebels’ defense also leaves the door open a bit. Ole Miss ranks 97th in EPA/Rush on that side of the ball, which was part of the story in the Florida loss. Auburn’s overall offense hasn’t been overwhelming, but it does have enough structure to make this interesting if the game turns into a grind.
Auburn’s defense should help keep things from getting away. The Tigers rank 41st nationally in adjusted EPA/Play on defense and 60th in EPA/Pass, which gives them a fighting chance to make life harder on Chambliss without Lacy as a backfield threat.
And Auburn has already shown it can hang around in league play. Its only SEC loss by more than 10 points came in a five-point defeat against Florida and a 10-point loss to Tennessee. That’s part of why the current line feels a bit too inflated with Lacy sidelined.
Still, this doesn’t look like an Auburn upset waiting to happen, especially on the road. But it does look like a game the Tigers can keep closer than the spread suggests.
In Other News...
Auburn Could Be Getting A Needed O-Line Boost At The Right Time
Auburns offensive line could be getting some timely help soon, and it comes in the form of sophomore Tai Buster. Head coach Alex Golesh said Buster, who has been out since a preseason injury, could be back on the practice field and in game action within a few weeks, a promising sign for a unit that can always use more bodies and more flexibility up front.
Buster has stayed around the team throughout the recovery process, keeping himself involved while he waits for the green light. He will miss the upcoming game against Ole Miss, but Auburn appears to be eyeing a later-season return that could give the Tigers a needed depth boost as the schedule wears on. [Read more 🡒]
Auburn Found One Encouraging Sign Fans Needed After The LSU Loss
Amid the frustration of the LSU loss, Auburn did get a useful glimpse of two young defenders who could matter down the stretch. Blake Woodby logged 26 snaps and drew praise from defensive coordinator DJ Durkin, who singled out both the way he played and the way he carried himself. For a team trying to find stability after a disappointing night, those kinds of bright spots can matter as much as anything else.
Jacobe Ward also stepped into a bigger role, seeing 14 snaps while filling in for an injured teammate. Head coach Alex Golesh sounded encouraged by Wards trajectory, another sign that Auburn may have more depth to lean on than the final score suggested. The Tigers still have work to do, but performances like these at least give the staff something to build on. [Read more 🡒]
Auburns International Signee Saga Ends With Bigger Questions For The Program
Mantas Rubstavicius will not suit up for Auburn basketball this season after voluntarily dismissing his eligibility lawsuit against the NCAA, closing the book on a situation that had lingered around the program for weeks. The international signees case had become one of the more unusual offseason plotlines for the Tigers, tying together roster planning, NCAA eligibility questions and the challenges that can come with evaluating players who developed outside the usual American pipeline.
Auburns broader fallout arrived with the confirmation that general manager Brian Kloman was fired, reportedly because Rubstavicius prior college enrollment overseas was not disclosed. Rubstavicius said he plans to continue his basketball career in Europe and thanked Auburns administration, coach and teammates, but the episode leaves the program with bigger questions about oversight and how such a misstep was allowed to happen in the first place. [Read more 🡒]