Jalen Johnson is already central to the Atlanta Hawks’ rise, but the numbers pointing toward the 2026-27 season come with a catch. He’s still projected to look like one of the East’s more complete forwards, yet the statistical profile also leaves room for a few uneasy questions if the Hawks want to stay in the top tier.
The projection sheet still paints Johnson as a high-end all-around force. Per 36 minutes, he’s pegged for 21.8 points, 16.5 field goal attempts, a .497 field goal percentage, .352 from three, .783 at the line, 7.1 assists, 10.3 rebounds, 1.3 steals, 0.6 blocks and 3.2 turnovers.
On a per-game basis, that doesn’t suggest a dramatic swing in either direction. It looks more like a continuation of what he already is: productive, versatile, and not quite free of the rough edges.
The biggest concern is the scoring dip. Johnson is projected to take fewer shots than he did in 2025-26, when he finished as an All-NBA Third Team selection.
If that 16.1 field goal attempts per game projection holds, his scoring would slide to 21.3 points per game. That would be a drop of 1.2 points from his career-high 22.5, and for a Hawks team trying to stay in the playoff mix, even that kind of decline matters.
Atlanta’s margin for error is thin. The Hawks posted a 2025-26 offensive rating of 116.1, which ranked 14th in the NBA.
With at least 12 teams in the Eastern Conference having the roster makeup to reach the playoffs, Johnson’s night-to-night output carries real weight. If he can’t consistently clear that scoring level, it could shape how the Hawks are viewed in the race.
Defense, though, is where the projection gets louder. Johnson is expected to remain a major problem on that end, and that fits with the Hawks’ broader identity on the defensive side.
He’s projected for 10.1 rebounds per game, which would be his second-highest total, and enough to lead Atlanta again. Onyeka Okongwu’s 7.6 rebounds and Dyson Daniels’ 6.8 would trail behind him.
He’s also projected for 1.3 steals, which would be the second-most of his career and would tie Nickeil Alexander-Walker for second if the numbers hold, behind Dyson Daniels’ 2.0 steals from the 2025-26 season. Add in 0.6 blocks per game, and the picture is clear: Johnson can impact possessions in more than one way.
The real issue remains his shooting. He has yet to separate himself from the pack in field goal percentage, three-point percentage or free throw percentage, and that same concern carries into the projection for 2026-27.
His field goal percentage is set at .497, which would keep him just below the 50% line for a second straight season if it comes true. That’s not disastrous, especially since it still sits above the 46.7% average for small forwards, but it also doesn’t scream elite efficiency.
The three-point number may matter even more. Johnson is projected to hit 35.2% from deep, and with the Hawks attempting 39.5 threes per game - ninth-most in the NBA - that shot has real lineup consequences.
Atlanta already finished fifth in the league in three-point percentage at 37.1%, so any bump from Johnson would open up more options for the team. If he can become more reliable from outside, that could help separate the Hawks from the teams chasing them.
There is one encouraging note in the projection: a 78.3% mark at the free-throw line. But the shot that needs the most work is still the one from the floor.
Johnson’s value is obvious. The question is whether he can sharpen the scoring efficiency enough to match everything else he already brings.
If he does, the Hawks may have something even bigger than a breakout forward.
In Other News...
Hawks May Regret How One Young Guard Decision Just Played Out
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The move makes a little more sense when you look at the guard picture the Hawks were trying to sort through, especially after adding Ryan Nembhard. Still, the timing left enough intrigue for Boston to step in and give Carter a new deal, which is the kind of outcome Atlanta will be forced to think about if its collection of similar young guards starts producing elsewhere. [Read more 🡒]
Lu Dort Has To Be More Than A Hawks Stopgap
Atlanta spent this offseason reshaping its wing rotation, and Lu Dort arrived as part of a three-team trade with a clear purpose: help fill the hole left by Zaccharie Risacher. The fit makes sense on paper. Dort brings toughness, physicality and the kind of edge that can matter in a crowded Eastern Conference, where Atlanta is trying to climb into a more serious tier before the season gets away from it.
But the Hawks cannot treat him like a simple plug-in. The next step is less about what Dort already does well and more about whether he can sharpen the parts of his game that decide bigger roles, from cleaner shot choices to steadier work at the point of attack. If Atlanta is going to lean on him when the games tighten, it will also need more than defense and energy. It will need a player who can help guide the group when the postseason pressure finally arrives. [Read more 🡒]
Hawks Rookie Faces The Same Early Test Jalen Johnson Once Did
Jalen Johnsons early path is a useful reminder that development in Atlanta does not always happen in a straight line. Much of his first stretch in the league came through the College Park Skyhawks, and the Hawks have clearly become comfortable using their G League affiliate as a real part of the growth plan, not just a holding spot for fringe players. That track record helped shape how the team approached this years rookie class, where Kingston Flemings, Zuby Ejiofor and Henri Veesaar are all facing different early expectations.
Veesaar looks like the latest prospect to be asked to take that route, and Atlanta seems willing to be patient with it. The organization has seen enough success developing players through College Park to believe it can matter in the long run, even if the early stages are less visible to fans watching the NBA roster every night. For a rookie trying to carve out a future, it is the same sort of test Johnson had to answer, only now the Hawks are asking it again with another young big in the pipeline. [Read more 🡒]