The Atlanta Hawks might’ve looked like the early winners of the offseason when they secured the rights to the New Orleans Pelicans’ 2026 first-round pick on draft night. But five straight wins from the Pelicans have thrown a wrench into that narrative - and suddenly, what once looked like a potential top-tier draft asset is starting to look a lot more uncertain.
Let’s rewind for a second. The Pelicans made waves on draft night when they traded up to take Derik Queen - a move that was widely panned at the time.
Critics saw it as a reach, and given the team’s shaky start to the season, it looked like New Orleans had doubled down on a high-risk, low-reward strategy. But fast forward a few weeks, and this young squad is showing signs of life.
Five wins in a row doesn’t turn them into contenders overnight, but it does shift the math in a big way for Atlanta.
Why does that matter? Because the value of that 2026 pick is tied directly to where the Pelicans finish in the standings. The further they climb, the less likely it is that the pick lands in the top four - and that dramatically changes its value.
Let’s break down the numbers. If the Hawks were sitting on the third-best lottery odds, they’d have a 93% chance of landing a top-six pick.
That’s a strong position - you’re basically guaranteed a shot at a starting-caliber player, even with just average talent evaluation. But if those odds slip to fifth-best?
Now you’re looking at just a 43.3% chance of a top-five pick, and the most likely outcome becomes the seventh pick overall. Still valuable, sure - but now you’re in a range where draft misses are more common and the margin for error gets thinner.
And here’s the kicker: the difference between the third- and fifth-worst record in the league right now? Just one win.
That’s how tight the bottom of the standings is - especially in a year where the 2026 draft class is loaded with talent. Teams like the Nets, Pacers, and Wizards are expected to lean into the tank hard, resting stars and moving veterans to maximize their lottery position.
But the Pelicans? They’ve got no reason to play that game.
Dejounte Murray is still sidelined with the Achilles injury he suffered last season, and Zion Williamson continues to battle through his all-too-familiar injury struggles. On paper, this team shouldn’t be stringing together wins - especially not with rookies starting at point guard and center, two of the toughest positions to master early in an NBA career. But here they are, defying expectations and clawing their way up the standings.
Now, let’s be clear: this doesn’t mean the Pelicans are suddenly a threat in the Play-In Tournament. They’re still a long way from being a playoff-caliber team.
But in today’s NBA, being one of the worst teams in the league takes real effort - and often, intentional decisions from the front office. Without that kind of hands-on tanking approach, New Orleans is naturally going to drift upward.
And for the Hawks, that’s a problem. The pick they acquired is only protected through the top four, meaning if the Pelicans land in the 5-14 range, Atlanta gets it outright. But the difference between a top-three pick and the seventh pick is massive - especially in a draft class that scouts are already calling one of the best in recent memory.
So while the Pelicans’ five-game win streak might not make headlines outside of New Orleans, it’s quietly reshaping the value of one of the most intriguing draft assets in the league. The Hawks may still have won the trade on paper, but if the Pelicans keep trending upward, that win won’t look nearly as lopsided.