The Wizards have made their bet, and it is a big one: four years, $212.7 million for Trae Young. Washington is clearly convinced the All-Star guard can drag the franchise back into contention. Atlanta, though, already lived through the other side of that story.
The Hawks spent the last two seasons of Young’s run finding out how hard it is to win with him at the center of everything. They missed the playoffs in both of those years, then got back just months after sending him to Washington. That’s the backdrop for the deal, and it’s why the move lands with so much skepticism from Hawks fans.
The numbers from 2024-26 tell the story the Hawks already knew. Over 3019 minutes, Atlanta posted a negative-0.5 net rating with Young on the floor.
Without him, the team was 2.1 points per 100 possessions better. His minutes also came with a 118.5 defensive rating, and last season that would have ranked 27th in the NBA.
It’s one thing to lose an All-Star’s production. It’s another to do it while the defense is bleeding points.
Atlanta decided it was time to pivot and build around Jalen Johnson, who made third-team All-NBA and is expected to take another step in his first full season without Young. Washington has its own young forward to lean on now in AJ Dybantsa, the No. 1 overall pick, but that setup brings its own complication.
Dybantsa looks ready to score, and he needs the ball in his hands. Hawks fans know Young has never been at his best when asked to work off the ball.
That’s the problem with Young in a nutshell. If the 6’2 guard is not one of the best offensive creators in the world, his value drops fast.
And on the other end, the issues only pile up. In his 280 minutes with the Hawks last season, Atlanta had a 129.2 defensive rating.
Young doesn’t get all the blame, but the team still finished with a negative-7.6 net rating in his minutes.
Washington is trying to end a five-year playoff drought and climb back into relevance. The roster does have young talent, and the front office has added veterans to help.
But the veteran group comes with questions of its own. Banking on Anthony Davis to stay healthy has been difficult.
Khris Middleton is on the decline. Deandre Ayton is not known for impacting winning.
That’s why the Wizards need Young to lift the whole operation. The Hawks, though, already know that building around him does not automatically lead to contention.
Young did help Atlanta reach the 2021 conference finals, but that was five years ago. The Hawks made the playoffs in 2022 and 2023, then got bounced in the first round both times.
Since then, his impact has slipped.
At 27, Young should be in his prime. Instead, Atlanta was plainly better without him last season. That is the painful truth the Hawks eventually accepted after four and a half frustrating years with him as the face of the team.
Washington believes it can get a different outcome. Atlanta already knows how this movie ends.
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