The Atlanta Hawks didn’t spend the summer making the kind of headline-grabbing moves that usually reshape the Eastern Conference picture. Instead, they added Lu Dort, Devin Carter, and Aaron Wiggins as salary dumps, then brought back CJ McCollum and Jock Landale on one-year deals. That gives Atlanta more depth and a possible starter in Dort, but it’s hard to look at the group and say the Hawks clearly raised their playoff ceiling.
Miami went the other way.
The Heat swung big by landing Milwaukee Bucks star Giannis Antetokounmpo, one of the five best players in the NBA when healthy, and Bobby Portis. They also re-signed Andrew Wiggins, added Tim Hardaway Jr., and, according to ESPN’s Shams Charania, agreed to terms on a new deal for Klay Thompson after he clears waivers following his contract buyout with the Dallas Mavericks.
BREAKING: Klay Thompson is expected to sign with the Miami Heat after he clears waivers upon a contract buyout with the Dallas Mavericks, sources tell ESPN. pic.twitter.com/jV40iKTyEz
That kind of offseason would make Miami a problem for plenty of teams. For Atlanta, it could be a particularly rough matchup.
The Knicks, Cavaliers, and Celtics have typically sat near the top of the East, and the 76ers forced their way into that conversation by adding LeBron James and Jaylen Brown in the same offseason. Even with all of that, Miami’s specific personnel changes line up in a way that makes them a nasty fit for the Hawks.
Start with Jalen Johnson. In his last three regular-season games against the Heat, he’s averaged 23 points, 12 rebounds, and 10.7 assists.
That’s a strong line on its face, and even his 16 points, 16 rebounds, and 11 assists in a blowout loss doesn’t tell the story of a player Miami has shut down. The issue now is that the Heat have more answers than they did before.
On February 3, Miami tried Kasparas Jakuconis, Jamie Jaquez, and Pelle Larsson on Johnson. None of them really had the size, strength, or length to bother him, and Johnson carved them up.
A few weeks later, on February 19, Andrew Wiggins gave the Heat a better option. He didn’t erase Johnson, but he was sturdy enough on the perimeter to make Johnson work for cleaner looks and force more passes.
Atlanta still converted enough of those opportunities, but Johnson finished 6-22 from the field with Wiggins playing a major role.
Johnson did go 3/6 with Wiggins as his closest defender, though one of those makes was a tough three and two came in the paint. The bigger point is that Wiggins made Johnson look elsewhere for easier chances.
Now Miami can pair Giannis on Johnson with Wiggins on the Hawks’ other wing spot. That’s a far different challenge.
Wiggins is at his best when he can stay attached to his man, contest shots, and jump passing lanes. He finished in the 80th percentile in deflections per game at 2.2, and he averages 21.2 defensive field goal attempts per 100 possessions, which lands in the 93rd percentile.
In other words, he’s built to punish sloppy possessions.
Giannis is another layer Atlanta has to deal with. Over the past three seasons, Johnson has made just three shots against him.
When Giannis has been the primary defender, Johnson has averaged 7.5 points, 5.0 assists, and 1.5 turnovers per 75 minutes on 39.5 TS%. That means Johnson is going to have to survive by reading the defense and trusting his teammates to knock down shots.
And those shots may be harder to come by against this version of Miami.
Thompson has already shown he can light up Atlanta. Fans remember the 54-point eruption in which he hit 10 threes against the Hawks during his Warriors days, and while he’s not that player anymore, he still found ways to exploit Atlanta’s defensive issues with Dallas. In his last three games against the Hawks, he’s hit at least four threes every time.
A lot of that damage came against Zaccharie Risacher, who struggled to handle him, but the bigger issue is still the same: Thompson punishes late rotations and broken coverages. Atlanta added more perimeter defense, yet it remains to be seen whether that fully solves the problem.
Miami’s other additions can stress the Hawks in similar ways. Hardaway Jr. scored 18 and 17 points in his last two games against Atlanta, while Portis has averaged more than three made threes per game in his last four matchups with the Hawks.
Hardaway Jr. shot 5-11 and 6-11 from deep in those two outings, and the sheer volume from him and Thompson will force Atlanta to stay sharp on every closeout and rotation. Portis adds rebounding edge and deep shooting, which could matter against a Hawks team that finished 20th in offensive rebounding.
The good news for Atlanta is that Miami’s new shooters are not much help on defense. That’s where the Hawks can try to balance the matchup.
Dyson Daniels may not be a real scoring threat, but he can pass. Nickeil Alexander-Walker can pressure the rim and make life miserable for slower defenders.
CJ McCollum can trade buckets when he’s rolling, and Onyeka Okongwu could still give the offense a lift if his development continues.
On paper, the Knicks still look like the biggest threat to Atlanta. But if injuries or regular-season inconsistency get in the way there, Miami may end up being the East team that gives the Hawks the most trouble.
In Other News...
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Atlanta is heading toward a familiar sort of roster squeeze, with 17 players currently on the books and room needing to be cleared before the 2026-27 season begins. The Hawks have to balance experience against flexibility, and Buddy Hield has emerged as one of the more interesting names in that conversation. The veteran guard still brings the kind of presence a team can use, but the margin for keeping everyone is shrinking.
Hield is not the only possible answer if the Hawks decide to trim the roster, since younger players could also be part of the equation. Still, his combination of age, salary, and role makes him hard to ignore as the front office sorts out where the teams priorities really lie. For a club trying to stay competitive while managing cost and depth, the decision could say a lot about what kind of team Atlanta wants to be once the season starts. [Read more 🡒]
Hawks Have An Explosive Duo But One Huge Offensive Question
The Hawks already have a clear calling card in Nickeil Alexander-Walker and Jalen Johnson, two players who were among the leagues best in transition possessions and efficiency last season, right alongside the kind of explosive finishers who can tilt a game in a hurry. Atlanta saw how dangerous that pairing can be when it was used with CJ McCollum in the teams smaller, faster lineup, where the pace and spacing gave the Hawks a different kind of edge than they usually bring.
The bigger issue is what comes next if that setup does not stay intact. McCollum is on a one-year extension, so Atlanta cannot count on him as a long-term piece, which leaves the front office looking for a more permanent offensive organizer to pair with Alexander-Walker and Johnson. Rookie Kingston Flemings has emerged as a name to watch in that search, and his development could end up shaping whether this group becomes simply intriguing or something more complete. [Read more 🡒]
Hawks Have One Clear Kuminga Trade Condition To Watch
Jonathan Kumingas sign-and-trade market has thinned in a hurry, with recent moves around the league making it less likely that Cleveland or the Clippers will stay involved. That has left one West Coast destination looking far more plausible, while the Hawks sit in a familiar spot for a team weighing whether the deal actually improves its position rather than just adding another name to the board.
For Atlanta, any real interest would come with a clear condition attached: the structure has to make sense for the roster and the cap sheet, not just the headline. A multi-team setup remains the cleanest path if the Hawks decide to engage, since it could help them handle salary and open roster flexibility, but there is still no agreement in place and no sign that the talks have moved beyond the preliminary stage. [Read more 🡒]