What’s Going on with Dyson Daniels’ Jumper? A Deep Dive into His Historic Shooting Struggles
There’s cold, and then there’s whatever’s happening with Dyson Daniels from beyond the arc this season.
Through the first half of the year, Daniels is shooting a jaw-dropping 10.9% from three-point range - a mark that would go down as the worst in NBA history for a qualifying player (minimum 60 attempts). That’s 7 makes on 62 tries. And yes, you read that right.
This is a stunning development for a player who, just last season, looked like he was on the verge of a breakout. Daniels took home the NBA’s Most Improved Player award and finished second in Defensive Player of the Year voting - a rare and impressive combo that had fans and analysts alike forecasting a two-way star in the making.
He even shot a career-best 34.0% from deep last year, a respectable clip that hinted at real growth. The idea of Daniels evolving into an OG Anunoby-type wing - a versatile defender who can knock down open looks - didn’t seem far-fetched.
But here we are. Daniels’ shooting has not just regressed - it’s cratered.
Why the Shot Matters So Much
In today’s NBA, it’s hard to be a consistent offensive contributor without at least being a threat from three. And for Daniels, that threat has vanished.
The Hawks - a team that typically rolls out a rotation full of capable shooters - are feeling the pinch whenever he’s on the floor. Opposing defenses are sagging off him, mucking up spacing, and daring him to shoot.
And the thing is, he has to shoot. That’s the catch.
Former Bucks executive Seth Partnow coined the term “The Roberson Effect,” named after Andre Roberson, a famously reluctant shooter. If a perimeter player refuses to take open threes, the defense essentially gets a free pass to ignore them.
Even if a player only hits one or two a game, the mere willingness to shoot forces defenders to stay honest. Stop shooting, and your team’s spacing collapses.
So Daniels is doing what he has to do - he's letting them fly. They’re just not going in.
The Numbers Behind the Struggle
Let’s dig into the analytics, because they paint a clearer picture of what’s happening.
Despite his shooting woes, Daniels remains a highly capable playmaker. He ranks in the top 16% of shooting guards in several key passing metrics: time spent on the ball, potential assists, assist-to-turnover ratio, and rim assists. With Trae Young missing time, Daniels has taken on more offensive responsibility and, in many ways, has kept things afloat with simple, smart ball movement.
But that playmaking hasn’t been enough to offset the damage done by his shooting. DARKO, one of the league’s most respected all-in-one metrics, currently ranks Daniels as the 241st-best offensive player in the NBA. That’s near the bottom of the league.
His true shooting percentage is 5% below league average, and that’s despite finishing well inside the arc. The three-point shot is dragging down his entire offensive profile.
Then there’s the NBA’s new “gravity” metric - a stat that measures how much defensive attention a player commands off the ball. Daniels checks in at -4.7 per game, a shockingly low number that puts him behind even Russell Westbrook, who’s never been known for stretching the floor.
Confidence, Coaching, and a Path Forward
Confidence seems to be a factor here. Daniels hasn’t looked as assertive this season, and it’s easy to see why. When every miss becomes a headline, even the most mentally tough players can start to second-guess their mechanics, their role, or their place in the offense.
What makes this slump even more puzzling is that the Hawks have a strong track record of developing shooters. Kyle Korver - one of the best pure shooters in league history - is part of the organization.
Atlanta’s coaching staff has helped several players improve their stroke over the years. So why is Daniels struggling this much?
That’s the million-dollar question. And it’s one the Hawks are surely trying to answer behind the scenes.
What Comes Next?
The good news? There’s still time.
The season isn’t over, and shooting slumps - even historic ones - can turn around. All it takes is one hot stretch, a few clean looks, and a little rhythm.
Daniels has the work ethic, the defensive chops, and the playmaking instincts to be a valuable piece. But if he wants to avoid going into the record books for the wrong reason, he needs to find his shooting touch - and soon.
Hawks fans are hoping this is just a blip, a weird statistical outlier in an otherwise promising career. If Daniels can bounce back, this stretch will become a footnote - something we all look back on and laugh about. But if the shot doesn’t return, the conversation around his long-term role in Atlanta will start to shift.
For now, the ball is in his hands. Literally.