In the world of bold sports takes, few have aged quite like Max Kellerman’s infamous 2016 prediction about Tom Brady. On First Take, Kellerman said the then-39-year-old quarterback was “just about done,” warning that Brady’s decline wouldn’t be gradual-it would be a steep, sudden fall.
“He could fall off a cliff at any moment,” Kellerman said at the time. “It could be his next game.
It could be a year from now. But he is going to fall off a cliff.
Tom Brady is going to be a bum in short order.”
Fast forward a few years, and that take became one of the most replayed cold takes in sports media. By 2022, the clip resurfaced on social media, reigniting the conversation. And this time, Brady himself joined in on the fun.
Responding to the viral video, Brady quote-tweeted it with a subtle jab that only added to his legacy of winning both on the field and online:
“@maxkellerman ratio + I have a swimwear line now 👍”
It was classic Brady-cool, composed, and quietly cutting. And it was well-earned.
Because by the time that tweet went out, Brady had already dismantled the very foundation of Kellerman’s argument. Since that 2016 Super Bowl win over the Falcons-the same game Kellerman pointed to as the beginning of Brady’s end-the quarterback had added three more Super Bowl rings to his collection.
One came the very next season. Another came in his first year with a brand-new team, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
That seventh ring didn’t just cement his status as the greatest of all time-it obliterated any lingering doubts about longevity, decline, or cliffs.
At 44 years old, Brady was still playing at a high level, preparing for his 23rd NFL season. He had even flirted with retirement, only to return weeks later with unfinished business.
On top of that, he had already lined up his post-playing career, signing on with Fox Sports as an NFL analyst. Retirement wasn’t a cliff for Brady-it was a well-paved road with a broadcasting booth at the end.
Eventually, even Max Kellerman had to admit defeat. In October 2020, following a string of vintage Brady performances in Tampa-including a game where he threw four touchdowns and ran for another against the Raiders-Kellerman finally waved the white flag.
“I was wrong. Tom Brady never fell off a cliff,” he said on-air.
To his credit, Kellerman explained the thought process behind the original prediction. He wasn’t just guessing-he was looking at the data, the actuarial tables, the historical precedent.
Quarterbacks didn’t typically thrive into their 40s. The odds were against Brady.
“That was the cliff-right around that age, 40 years old, certainly 41, 42, it was over,” Kellerman said. “If Tom Brady does it, he will be defying the odds. The fact that he has, he’s defied the odds.”
And that’s exactly what Brady did-again and again. After Kellerman’s 2016 comments, Brady not only won the Super Bowl that season, he followed it up with an MVP campaign and a record-setting performance in another Super Bowl appearance. The 28-3 comeback against Atlanta remains one of the most iconic moments in NFL history, and it was just the beginning of the post-“cliff” era.
In hindsight, the take wasn’t just wrong-it became a cultural marker. A reminder that greatness can’t always be measured by charts and trends.
Sometimes, it’s about the outliers. The ones who rewrite the rules.
And Tom Brady didn’t just avoid the cliff-he built a penthouse on the edge of it and kept winning from there.