Week 4 closes with an NFC South matchup that feels a little more wide open than the betting line suggests. The Atlanta Falcons and New Orleans Saints both come in at 1-2, and Monday Night Football gives one of them a chance to climb back to .500 in a division that has been pedestrian at best over the last several seasons.
Atlanta’s path into this game looks a lot different than it did two weeks ago. The Falcons opened 0-2, then went on the road and handled the Green Bay Packers with Michael Penix Jr. back under center.
That return changes the shape of the offense in a big way. Bijan Robinson and Drake London are already two of the best weapons in football, and with Penix in the lineup, the unit suddenly looks far more dangerous.
New Orleans has its own offensive spark. Tyler Shough has pushed his way into the back end of the MVP conversation, and the Saints have started fast on that side of the ball. But Week 3 brought a damaging home loss to the Las Vegas Raiders, a reminder that even a team favored to win the NFC South still has plenty to prove in the 2026 season.
Oddsmakers have leaned toward the Saints at home, but the number has been anything but stable. New Orleans opened as a 2.5-point favorite, and the line has moved back and forth between 2.5 and 3.5 before settling at 2.5. The total has climbed to 47.5, a sign that Penix’s return has sharpened expectations for Atlanta’s offense.
SI Betting senior editor Iain MacMillan is among those backing the Falcons as an upset play in his Road to 272 column. “I think we all saw just how different this Falcons team is with a competent quarterback. Michael Penix Jr. had a slow start against the Packers, but once he found his footing, the Falcons' offense looked elite, led by the likes of Bijan Robinson and Drake London.
Let's also give credit to the Falcons' defense, which is eighth in opponent EPA per play and third in opponent success rate. If their offense can continue to improve and their defense can keep this level of play going, they're going to be a dangerous team.
I think I'm settling on the Saints being an average team. They're in the middle of the pack in both metrics, including ranking 15th in EPA per play and 24th in opponent EPA per play.
I'm willing to bet by the final whistle on Monday night, the NFC South will go through Atlanta.”
The Falcons defense has been steady enough to make that case believable. Atlanta ranks in the top 10 in yards per play allowed, success rate and EPA/Play, and that kind of profile gives the Falcons a real shot if Penix keeps connecting with Robinson and London the way he did in Week 3.
MacMillan and the SI Betting staff are both on Atlanta in this spot, making the Falcons one of the favorite underdog picks of the week. Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
In Other News...
Falcons-Saints Just Lost A Reunion Fans Had Circled
The Week 4 meeting with New Orleans just got a little thinner on the Saints defensive side, as linebacker Kaden Elliss has been ruled out because of a calf injury. Atlanta also got some clarity on the rest of the matchup picture, with the Saints set to be without edge rushers Carl Granderson and Anfernee Jennings, while linebacker Pete Werner is listed as questionable.
For the Falcons, the most interesting ripple could come at linebacker if Divine Deablo cant go. That would open the door for rookie Harold Perkins Jr. to see more action, giving Atlanta a chance to lean on a younger defensive look in a division game that already carried plenty of intrigue before the injury report started to reshape it. [Read more 🡒]
Michael Penix Jr. Just Raised The Stakes For Falcons Vs Saints
Michael Penix Jr. is walking into one of the biggest spots of his young Falcons career, and he is not treating Monday nights trip to New Orleans like just another divisional game. Fresh off returning from an ACL injury, the quarterback is set to start against the Saints in a matchup that carries real weight for Atlantas NFC South hopes, with the Falcons still trying to establish themselves in the division race.
The setting only adds to the pressure. The game also lands on the 20th anniversary of the Saints first game back at the Superdome after Hurricane Katrina, giving the night an extra layer of emotion and attention. Penixs recent critical remark about New Orleans has already sharpened the edge of the matchup, and now he has to back it up in one of the leagues more charged road environments. [Read more 🡒]
Falcons Fans Remember The Steve Gleason Play For A Different Reason
Two decades later, Steve Gleasons blocked punt still looms large over the Saints return to the Superdome after Hurricane Katrina, a snapshot that became bigger than the play itself and a symbol of recovery for a city and a franchise. For Falcons fans, it remains one of those moments that lives on for more than the football, a reminder of how one snap can take on a meaning nobody could have scripted.
Gleasons story did not stop there, of course. After his ALS diagnosis in 2011, he turned the visibility from that night into something far more lasting, becoming one of the sports most recognizable advocates for ALS awareness while continuing to share his life publicly. He now has an album, titled "Rebirth," on the way, drawn from the years since his diagnosis, and he has said that the blocked punt ended up giving him a platform that proved important in a fight much bigger than football. [Read more 🡒]