Monday night’s NFC South matchup in Week 4 brings two teams trying to climb back to .500, but they arrive there in very different ways. Atlanta has already lived through the rocky version of its season, starting 0-2 with Michael Penix Jr. sidelined and Cooper Rush struggling badly in his place. Through those first two weeks, the Falcons sat dead last in the league in EPA/Play on offense.
Then Penix returned in Week 3, and everything changed fast. Atlanta rolled past the Green Bay Packers on Thursday Night Football, and that performance came with the added benefit of an extra-long week to prepare for this divisional game. A win on Monday would push the Falcons into first place in the NFC South, a spot that looked far out of reach after the opening stretch.
New Orleans, meanwhile, has seen its stock rise in the betting market as a division favorite, but the record still says 1-2 after a Week 3 loss to the Las Vegas Raiders as favorites. The Saints are back in the favored role on Monday night, with Tyler Shough and the offense trying to build on what has been a strong start on that side of the ball. They’ll be without Travis Etienne Jr., who is dealing with a hamstring injury, but the passing game still gives them options on the outside.
That’s part of what makes this one such a key early division game. In a South that was decided by tiebreaker last season, every game inside the division matters.
SI Betting’s senior editor Iain MacMillan is taking the Falcons as one of his favorite upset picks in his Road to 272 column. His case starts with the difference Penix makes.
“I think we all saw just how different this Falcons team is with a competent quarterback. Michael Penix Jr. had a slow start against the Packers, but once he found his footing, the Falcons' offense looked elite, led by the likes of Bijan Robinson and Drake London.”
He also points to Atlanta’s defense, which has been strong through three weeks. “Let's also give credit to the Falcons' defense, which is eighth in opponent EPA per play and third in opponent success rate. If their offense can continue to improve and their defense can keep this level of play going, they're going to be a dangerous team.”
MacMillan sees New Orleans as more of a middle-of-the-road team than the market may suggest. “I think I'm settling on the Saints being an average team. They're in the middle of the pack in both metrics, including ranking 15th in EPA per play and 24th in opponent EPA per play.”
One of the clearest angles in the matchup comes through the air. “The Saints love to throw the ball - and for good reason - as Shough ranks eighth in the NFL in success rate amongst quarterbacks with at least 50 plays this season.”
Shough has already gone over this passing line twice, with 56, 34 and 42 pass attempts in his three games. MacMillan expects that number to keep climbing in Week 4.
That fits the matchup on Atlanta’s side, too. The Falcons have been first in EPA/Rush but only 14th in EPA/Pass, and they rank 29th in the league in passing yards allowed. With Etienne banged up, MacMillan believes Kellen Moore may lean even harder into the air attack, and Shough has already shown he can be effective while throwing it 40-plus times.
Drake London is another player MacMillan likes in this game, ranking his reception prop No. 3 in this week’s Player Prop Countdown. London just delivered a huge game with Penix back under center, catching nine passes for 194 yards against Green Bay.
“Last week proved that Drake London is a completely different player with Michael Penix Jr. at quarterback. Penix loves to target his No. 1 receiver, as London hauled in nine receptions for 194 yards against the Packers, and not a single other pass-catcher on the team had more than two receptions.
We only need him to haul in six receptions on Monday night for this bet to cash.”
New Orleans tight end Juwan Johnson is another name to watch. He has scored in two of his three games this season and has three touchdowns overall.
Through three weeks, he’s drawn 19 targets and caught 15 passes, and he’s also been heavily involved in the red zone, converting four of five looks there into three scores. Atlanta has already allowed three passing touchdowns to opposing tight ends, which only adds to the appeal of Johnson as a scoring threat.
MacMillan expects the Saints to keep attacking through the air in Week 4, and that shapes the betting case for this primetime divisional game.
In Other News...
Falcons-Saints Just Lost A Reunion Fans Had Circled
The Week 4 meeting with New Orleans just got a little thinner on the Saints defensive side, as linebacker Kaden Elliss has been ruled out because of a calf injury. Atlanta also got some clarity on the rest of the matchup picture, with the Saints set to be without edge rushers Carl Granderson and Anfernee Jennings, while linebacker Pete Werner is listed as questionable.
For the Falcons, the most interesting ripple could come at linebacker if Divine Deablo cant go. That would open the door for rookie Harold Perkins Jr. to see more action, giving Atlanta a chance to lean on a younger defensive look in a division game that already carried plenty of intrigue before the injury report started to reshape it. [Read more 🡒]
Michael Penix Jr. Just Raised The Stakes For Falcons Vs Saints
Michael Penix Jr. is walking into one of the biggest spots of his young Falcons career, and he is not treating Monday nights trip to New Orleans like just another divisional game. Fresh off returning from an ACL injury, the quarterback is set to start against the Saints in a matchup that carries real weight for Atlantas NFC South hopes, with the Falcons still trying to establish themselves in the division race.
The setting only adds to the pressure. The game also lands on the 20th anniversary of the Saints first game back at the Superdome after Hurricane Katrina, giving the night an extra layer of emotion and attention. Penixs recent critical remark about New Orleans has already sharpened the edge of the matchup, and now he has to back it up in one of the leagues more charged road environments. [Read more 🡒]
Falcons Fans Remember The Steve Gleason Play For A Different Reason
Two decades later, Steve Gleasons blocked punt still looms large over the Saints return to the Superdome after Hurricane Katrina, a snapshot that became bigger than the play itself and a symbol of recovery for a city and a franchise. For Falcons fans, it remains one of those moments that lives on for more than the football, a reminder of how one snap can take on a meaning nobody could have scripted.
Gleasons story did not stop there, of course. After his ALS diagnosis in 2011, he turned the visibility from that night into something far more lasting, becoming one of the sports most recognizable advocates for ALS awareness while continuing to share his life publicly. He now has an album, titled "Rebirth," on the way, drawn from the years since his diagnosis, and he has said that the blocked punt ended up giving him a platform that proved important in a fight much bigger than football. [Read more 🡒]