The Atlanta Falcons have made their call for Week 1, and it comes with a ripple effect in the betting market. Tua Tagovailoa will start Sunday’s opener in Pittsburgh against the Steelers, with Michael Penix Jr. still working his way back from the torn ACL he suffered last November.
Penix was not cleared for 11-on-11 work until Aug. 22, and Atlanta is opting not to rush him back. That leaves Tagovailoa, a veteran former first-round pick, to handle the early-season pressure despite a preseason that did not exactly turn heads.
The move has already nudged the Week 1 line. Pittsburgh opened as a three-point favorite and has moved to 3.5-point favorites heading into kickoff. Tagovailoa’s promotion may have pushed that number by half a point, though Atlanta is still -118 to cover the spread on Sunday.
There’s still a chance the spread settles back at three, but the early betting lean is clearly on Pittsburgh. At DraftKings, 78 percent of moneyline bets and 58 percent of spread bets are backing the Steelers. That’s not hard to understand: Pittsburgh was a playoff team in the 2025 season and brings a steadier setup with Aaron Rodgers back at quarterback.
Tagovailoa’s own recent track record is a big reason the market has cooled on Atlanta. In the 2025 season, he threw for 2,660 yards, 20 touchdowns and 15 interceptions while going 6-8 in 14 starts for Miami, which ultimately moved on from the former top-five pick. He has completed a full 17-game season only once in his NFL career, and that’s part of why Penix could still see the field early in the 2026 season.
The Falcons’ broader outlook is modest, too. They’re projected to win 7.5 games in 2026, with the UNDER set at -140. If Tagovailoa gets rolling quickly, Atlanta could hang around in the NFC South, but the betting market is clearly skeptical after what it saw from him last year.
In Other News...
Falcons Suddenly Have A Tua Concern They Cant Ignore
A brief scare at practice put Tua Tagovailoa back in the spotlight for the Falcons on Wednesday, as the newly named starter appeared to feel discomfort and went to the ground during the session. The issue seemed tied to the back trouble he dealt with earlier in training camp, and he did not throw again during the media portion of practice.
For Atlanta, the timing is what makes it worth watching. Tagovailoa only recently won the starting job, with Cooper Rush and rookie Jack Strand behind him on the depth chart, so any interruption in his workload immediately raises the stakes for a team trying to settle its quarterback picture. His status is expected to be clarified in the next injury report, but for now the Falcons are left waiting to see how serious this latest concern might be. [Read more 🡒]
Falcons Week 1 Plan Suddenly Rests On A New Quarterback Decision
Cooper Rush did not arrive in Atlanta long ago, but he is already in the middle of the Falcons most important early-season conversation. Signed in late July, Rush took first-team reps in practice after Tua Tagovailoa was slowed by an oblique injury, a development that immediately put the quarterback picture for Week 1 into focus. With a new offense being installed under coordinator Tommy Rees, every snap matters even more as the Falcons try to get the operation steady before facing the Pittsburgh Steelers.
Rush has been part of that process in a way the coaching staff clearly values, drawing praise for his consistency and communication during practice. If Tagovailoa cannot go, Rush is prepared to handle the opening assignment, which would turn a late-summer roster move into a far bigger early-season responsibility. For a team trying to settle into a new system, the next few practices will say plenty about how quickly the Falcons can get comfortable under center. [Read more 🡒]
Falcons Opener Just Got A Big Joey Porter Jr. Wrinkle
The Falcons Week 1 prep has picked up an extra layer of uncertainty with Joey Porter Jr. still working his way back from a back issue. Pittsburgh coach Mike McCarthy would not say whether the cornerback needs to complete a full practice before being cleared for the matchup in Atlanta, and Porter has only been able to work in a limited capacity while he remains in a ramp-up stage.
There is also the longer-term backdrop of Porters contract situation, which remains open with the Steelers but is not close to being resolved. Pittsburgh has a policy of not negotiating extensions once the regular season starts, so the focus for now is on how quickly Porter can build up to game readiness before the opener, even if the timetable is still not fully clear. [Read more 🡒]