The Atlanta Falcons are heading into Week 1 with Tua Tagovailoa at quarterback, and that decision has already nudged the betting market for Sunday’s trip to Pittsburgh.
According to the report, Atlanta has settled on the veteran starter for its regular-season opener against the Steelers while Michael Penix Jr. continues working back from the torn ACL he suffered last November. Penix was not cleared for 11-on-11 work until Aug. 22, and the Falcons are choosing not to push him back before he’s ready.
Tagovailoa’s preseason did not exactly light things up, but Atlanta is leaning on his experience. That’s the bet the Falcons are making with Week 1 looming.
The line has reflected that choice. Pittsburgh opened as a three-point favorite, then moved to 3.5 ahead of kickoff.
The shift to Tagovailoa as the starter may have accounted for part of that move, though Atlanta is still listed at -118 to cover. There’s also a chance the spread could drift back to three.
The betting splits point the other way, at least for now. At DraftKings, 78 percent of the moneyline bets and 58 percent of the spread bets are on the Steelers.
That makes sense on paper. Pittsburgh was a playoff team in the 2025 season, and it enters this matchup with Aaron Rodgers back at quarterback. Atlanta, meanwhile, is sitting as a long shot at +13000 to win the Super Bowl, and the market clearly isn’t sold on Tagovailoa after what happened last season.
His 2025 numbers tell the story. Tagovailoa was cut loose by the Miami Dolphins after throwing for 2,660 yards, 20 touchdowns and 15 interceptions while going 6-8 in 14 starts. He has finished a full 17-game season only once in his NFL career, which is why it wouldn’t be a surprise if Penix gets a shot early in the 2026 season.
For now, though, the Falcons are rolling with the former first-round pick in Pittsburgh. Atlanta is projected for 7.5 wins in 2026, with the UNDER at -140, and if Tagovailoa starts fast, the Falcons could at least keep themselves in the NFC South conversation.
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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