The Falcons may have dodged the worst with Michael Penix Jr., but his rib injury still hangs over a Week 6 matchup that already looks tight on the board.
Penix was hurt late in Sunday night’s loss to the Baltimore Ravens and did not take part in Atlanta’s overtime drive. He got an MRI on Monday, and The Athletic’s Jonathan Jones reported that the Falcons are optimistic the former first-round pick will be able to play against the Chicago Bears.
Falcons optimistic Michael Penix Jr. (rib) will be able to play Week 6, per @jjones9.
Even with that positive update, Atlanta has not moved into favorite territory. DraftKings Sportsbook has the Falcons as three-point underdogs at home against Chicago in Week 6.
That number opened with Atlanta at -1.5 before Sunday night’s loss, then shifted a bit further toward the Bears on Monday, with Chicago listed at -120 to cover. The Falcons have still drawn 55 percent of the spread bets at DraftKings, so a return for Penix could pull the line back in Atlanta’s direction.
Quarterback health is the big storyline on both sides. Caleb Williams appears on track to return for Chicago after missing three games with a hamstring injury. The former No. 1 overall pick was questionable heading into Week 5, which marked progress after he went down in Week 2 against the Minnesota Vikings.
The Falcons have looked much sharper with Penix running the offense in 2026. They are 2-1 in his three starts, and the attack has climbed from last in the NFL in EPA/Play to 18th in EPA/Play and eighth in success rate.
Penix has completed 67.5 percent of his passes for 719 yards, three touchdowns and one interception in those three games. If he cannot go, former top-five pick Tua Tagovailoa is the next man up. Tagovailoa threw a game-ending interception in overtime in Week 5 after Penix was sidelined.
Atlanta is still in the mix in the NFC South at 2-3, but a longer absence from Penix would clearly be a major blow to the offense. If he practices early in the week, the betting market could move back toward the Falcons.
In Other News...
Falcons Loss Exposed One Uncomfortable Truth About Bijan Robinson
Baltimores defense made Atlanta earn everything on the ground, and Bijan Robinsons latest outing was a good example of how even productive days can feel muted when the opponent takes away the run game early. Robinson still found creases and kept the offense moving at times, but the Falcons had to lean more on the passing game than they usually would against a front that was physical from the start and consistently squeezed the space Atlanta wanted to create.
Even in a quieter game by his recent standards, Robinson remained a central piece of the Falcons offense and showed why his role goes well beyond the box score. The larger concern for Atlanta was how quickly the ground attack lost its edge, leaving Michael Penix Jr. to carry more of the load than the Falcons probably wanted against one of the leagues tougher defenses. [Read more 🡒]
Falcons Now Face A Bears QB Twist That Changes This Matchup
The Falcons trip to Chicago could still hinge on a quarterback decision that is not fully settled yet. Bears coach Ben Johnson said Caleb Williams is continuing to progress as he works back from the hamstring injury that has kept him out the past three games, and Atlanta is waiting to see whether the rookie is ready in time to change the complexion of the matchup.
If Williams is not able to go, the Bears still have one more wrinkle to sort through before kickoff, with Johnson saying the team has not decided which backup would get the start. Chicago is coming off a loss to Green Bay, and Johnson pointed to the recent play of Tyson Bagent and Case Keenum, leaving the Falcons to prepare for a game plan that could look very different depending on who ends up under center. [Read more 🡒]
Falcons Could Catch A Huge Break Against Chicago's Pass Rush
Chicagos defense took a hit this week with Montez Sweat sidelined for the next two games, a notable blow for a unit that has played well enough to sit tied for fifth in points allowed per game. For Atlanta, that matters because Sweat has been one of the Bears main pass-rushing threats, and his absence changes the look of a front that had given opponents reason to prepare carefully.
The Bears still have enough pieces to make life difficult, and they are expected to keep defending at a high level even without him. But with Atlanta set to face Chicago in the near term, the Falcons now have a little more room to breathe when they look at protection plans and passing-game opportunities, especially against a defense that had been counting on Sweat to help set the tone up front. [Read more 🡒]