Todd Bowles didn’t just beat the Falcons in Week 8. He put Michael Penix Jr. in a blender.
Atlanta’s 16-0 loss to Tampa Bay came in miserable weather - heavy winds, a torrential downpour, the kind of day that makes every snap feel like a small disaster. Penix still threw it 24 times, and the box score was brutal: 125 yards, 8-of-24 passing, no touchdowns, four interceptions and a fumble.
Most of the yardage came on one play to Jahan Dotson. It was the first time Penix had ever thrown four interceptions at any level - not with the Falcons, not in college, not in high school.
But the weather wasn’t the whole story.
Bowles’ defense made the night even uglier by leaning on 5-1-5 “penny fronts” and variations of 6-1 and 6-2 looks to slow Atlanta’s run game. That alignment packed the line with five or six defensive linemen, kept only one or two linebackers on the field, and let the Buccaneers use speed in the secondary to handle the pass. The result was constant stress on Penix and the Falcons’ front.
Penix was pressured on 8 of his 25 drop backs, a 32% rate that sits around the top 10. Tampa Bay also stayed heavy in zone coverage, using it at about an 80% clip, and the Bucs rank around ninth in the league in zone usage.
That mattered because ESPN research before the 49ers game showed Penix averaging a 39 QBR against zone. Against Bowles, he was forced to diagnose coverages after the snap, his timing got thrown off, and he kept trying to fit throws into windows that weren’t there.
That’s been the issue before. Penix has shown a tendency to struggle against heavy defensive looks that crowd the line and then rotate into different zone coverages.
In this one, he looked locked into the structure of the play and rushed himself into throws to receivers who weren’t open. Several of those “anticipation” throws seemed to come before he had fully checked the routes, which helped lead to multiple early Alex Anzalone interceptions.
It was the same kind of problem he ran into on his first interception of the season in Green Bay.
The strange part is that this looked nothing like the quarterback who had just carved up the 49ers the week before.
There is at least a cleaner path ahead. Penix gets the Bengals on Sunday morning in Madrid, and the numbers point in a very different direction.
Cincinnati ranks 32nd in blitz rate at 19.1%, is first in the league in light box rate at 57.5%, and has the league’s lowest heavy box rate at 16.7%. On top of that, the Bengals rank fourth in man coverage rate at 28.5%, and Penix has posted some of his best work against man, with an 81 QBR in those situations according to the same ESPN research.
The Falcons have seen a rough outing from him before and kept moving. Matt Ryan once threw five interceptions in 2013 against the Arizona Cardinals, another Todd Bowles-coordinated defense, and came back to lead Atlanta to the Super Bowl three years later.
So yes, Week 8 was a mess. But Penix gets a chance to reset in Spain, and the Falcons aren’t giving up on him.
In Other News...
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Khalil Herbert is expected to be elevated to help fill that role, giving Atlanta another option as it sorts through its running back rotation. There is also some uncertainty on the defensive side, where edge rusher James Pearce was limited in practice and is listed as questionable, adding another layer of concern before a game that already carries some roster stress. [Read more 🡒]
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Joe Burrow and the Bengals arrive with momentum after a huge performance, while Atlanta is trying to put last weeks turnover-filled outing behind it and avoid letting one rough stretch define the first half of the season. With several other contenders and trade chatter swirling around the league, this is the kind of game that can sharpen the picture for both teams fast, and the Falcons need a cleaner showing if they want to keep their place in the NFC race. [Read more 🡒]
Falcons Put James Pearce Jr. In A Role Fans Have Wanted
James Pearce Jr. is finally lined up for the kind of role Falcons fans have been waiting to see. Defensive coordinator Jeff Ulbrich said the rookie defensive end is expected to start as a primary pass-rush piece, a sign Atlanta is ready to lean into the skill set that made him such an intriguing addition in the first place. It is the latest step in a defense that has been sorting out how best to deploy its front while keeping the bigger picture in mind.
The setup still comes with some caution, though, as the Falcons try to balance impact with conditioning and workload. Ulbrich has been working through the details of how Pearce fits into the rotation, and the team seems intent on making the move count rather than simply forcing snaps. For a pass rush that needs more juice, the opportunity is there now, and the next question is how quickly Pearce can turn it into production. [Read more 🡒]