Michael Penix Jr. has spent the early part of this season looking like exactly what the Falcons hoped he’d become. Through three starts, the Atlanta quarterback has lifted the offense in a way that makes the difference obvious every time he’s on the field. The Falcons are averaging 34.3 points per game with him starting, and his numbers sit near the top of the league in several key categories, including EPA per play, EPA success rate, yards per attempt and play-action EPA per play.
That surge has been tied to the kind of offense that finally seems built to help him develop. But Penix still has a flaw that’s impossible to ignore: pressure.
When he’s kept clean, he’s been sharp. When defenses get into the pocket, the production falls off a cliff.
ESPN research has Penix at just 1-for-16, or 6%, when pressured this season, and he’s the only quarterback with a completion rate under 30% in those situations. His un-pressured EPA per dropback ranks second among quarterbacks, but when the heat comes, he drops to last.
That weakness will be there on film, and defenses are going to keep testing it after what happened against the Ravens. But this week brings a break for Atlanta, because the Bears do not look equipped to make Penix uncomfortable.
Chicago’s pass rush is already thin, and now it’s in rough shape. Montez Sweat has been suspended two games after violating the NFL’s performing-enhacing substances policy, and even before that, he hadn’t been making much noise. He’s coming off a 10-sack season, but this year Austin Booker has been outplaying him.
The Bears also lost another starter off the edge. Dayo Odeyingbo went down with a quad injury against the Packers, and Ben Johnson already said he’ll miss time. That leaves Chicago leaning on Booker and former Falcon Grady Jarrett, a group that doesn’t exactly look built to rattle Atlanta.
The Falcons’ offensive line has held up reasonably well, too, so Penix shouldn’t be staring down much resistance from the Bears’ front. Dennis Allen isn’t likely to recreate the kind of pressure Jesse Minter generated against Baltimore last week, which should leave Penix with time to settle in and work from the pocket.
And when he has that room, he’s been the player Atlanta wants. The next step is obvious - getting better when pressure closes in - but for this matchup, that particular problem may not have to be front and center.
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Falcons Secondary Could Make One Draft What If Hurt Even More
Rome Odunze has had a stop-and-start beginning to his NFL career, flashing enough talent to keep the Bears hopeful while injuries and uneven production have kept him from putting it together consistently. Now Chicago gets Atlanta in Week 6, and the matchup arrives at a time when the Falcons secondary is far from whole, giving Odunze a chance to turn one of those promising stretches into something more sustained.
The timing matters for Atlanta because the defense is already thin enough that Chicago may be able to pick on spots in coverage and lean on Odunze as a vertical threat. With the Falcons trying to hold together a back end that has been hit by injuries, this is the kind of game that can make a draft decision look even more painful if the young receiver finally finds his stride on Sunday. [Read more 🡒]
Falcons Have One Week 6 Concern Fans Cant Ignore
The Falcons are trying to keep momentum rolling into Week 6 after their offense found another gear with Michael Penix Jr. back under center. Atlantas improved play has been fueled by the kind of production that makes defensive coordinators uneasy, with Bijan Robinson and Drake London sitting atop the league in combined yards, and the group appears poised to test the Bears again if the quarterback situation holds steady.
One small roster move did add a little uncertainty to the picture, though, as Atlanta parted ways with safety Jammie Robinson after using him on both the practice squad and active roster this season. The timing makes it worth watching a little closer, especially with Penix working through a rib issue and the Falcons needing to keep the rest of the roster stable around him as they get ready for Chicago. [Read more 🡒]
Falcons Face A Few Matchups That Could Decide Everything Vs Bears
Sundays matchup in Chicago has more than enough at stake for the Falcons to keep a close eye on the details, and the game may come down to a handful of individual battles as much as scheme or momentum. Jeff Ulbrich will be under the microscope against Bears coach Ben Johnson, while the trench work on both sides should matter just as much, with Gervon Dexter set to test Jonah Jackson and Atlantas protection up front.
The passing game, though, may offer the clearest swing points for Atlantas offense. Drake London has become the kind of target who forces defenses to make a plan for him every week, and Kyle Pitts is coming off a more involved showing that hinted at a bigger role moving forward. Chicago has enough talent in the secondary and at linebacker to make both matchups interesting, which is exactly why this one feels like it could hinge on a few decisive snaps rather than a long, steady flow. [Read more 🡒]