Week 6 in Atlanta comes with a lot of uncertainty, but the betting market has still landed on the Bears. Chicago is sitting as a three-point road favorite over the Falcons, even with both teams dealing with quarterback questions that could swing this game in a hurry.
The line has already moved around. Atlanta opened as a 1.5-point favorite on Sunday night before its loss to the Baltimore Ravens, and that game brought another complication when Michael Penix Jr. (ribs) exited in the fourth quarter.
If Penix can’t suit up in Week 6, the Falcons would be in a difficult spot. Atlanta went 0-2 without him in the first two weeks, and the offense posted one of the worst EPA/Play numbers and success rates in the league during that stretch.
In that scenario, Tua Tagovailoa would likely start against Chicago.
Chicago is trying to get its own quarterback back on the field. Caleb Williams (hamstring) is working toward a return after missing Week 5, when Tyson Bagent was intercepted twice before giving way to veteran Case Keenum. The Bears managed only seven points in their blowout loss to the Green Bay Packers, a rough step back after Williams opened the season by guiding Chicago to 59 points in a Week 1 win over the Carolina Panthers.
That Williams update matters for how this game might play. The latest odds point to a decent chance he returns in Week 6, and if he does, the scoring outlook changes fast. Chicago has gone under the total in every game since that Week 1 outburst, but Williams’ presence gives the offense a very different ceiling.
If both quarterbacks are active, this has the feel of a game that could turn into a track meet indoors in Atlanta. The Falcons’ offense has been one of the best in the NFL since Penix returned, climbing to No. 8 in the league in success rate. Chicago, meanwhile, still ranks 14th in EPA/Play and 13th in success rate on offense despite the ugly snaps from Bagent and Keenum in Week 5.
The defense is part of the story too, and not in a flattering way for Chicago. The Bears are giving up the fourth-most yards per play in the NFL, which only adds to the appeal of Atlanta’s best offensive weapon.
That weapon is Bijan Robinson, who has been one of the league’s most dangerous playmakers all season and could carry even more of the load if Penix is sidelined. Through five games, Robinson has 102 carries for 580 yards, a 5.7-yard average, and four rushing touchdowns. He’s also been heavily involved as a receiver, with 18 catches on 25 targets for 152 yards and another score.
The Bears have had trouble slowing the run, allowing 4.4 yards per carry and ranking 24th in EPA/Rush. Robinson has topped 100 combined rushing and receiving yards in four of his five games this season, and that kind of usage fits the matchup perfectly.
Bettors may want to wait and see what both quarterbacks look like in practice before locking anything in. But if Williams is back, the expectation here is simple: points. If Penix can go too, this could be one of the more entertaining games on the Week 6 board.
In Other News...
Michael Penix Jr.'s Status Suddenly Looms Over Falcons-Bears
Michael Penix Jr.s health quickly became the biggest subplot for Atlanta after Sunday nights loss to the Ravens, when the quarterback took a rib injury late in the game and was unable to be out there for the overtime drive. The Falcons had him undergo an MRI on Monday, and the early read from the organization is encouraging enough to keep him in the conversation for Week 6 against the Bears.
Still, the situation leaves Atlanta with a real wait-and-see feeling heading into the new week, because the Falcons need clarity at the most important position before facing Chicago. If Penix is not cleared, the next quarterback up is expected to be Tua Tagovailoa, which gives the injury update even more weight as the team tries to get its offense settled in time for Sunday. [Read more 🡒]
Falcons Loss Exposed One Uncomfortable Truth About Bijan Robinson
Baltimores defense made Atlanta earn everything on the ground, and Bijan Robinsons latest outing was a good example of how even productive days can feel muted when the opponent takes away the run game early. Robinson still found creases and kept the offense moving at times, but the Falcons had to lean more on the passing game than they usually would against a front that was physical from the start and consistently squeezed the space Atlanta wanted to create.
Even in a quieter game by his recent standards, Robinson remained a central piece of the Falcons offense and showed why his role goes well beyond the box score. The larger concern for Atlanta was how quickly the ground attack lost its edge, leaving Michael Penix Jr. to carry more of the load than the Falcons probably wanted against one of the leagues tougher defenses. [Read more 🡒]
Falcons Now Face A Bears QB Twist That Changes This Matchup
The Falcons trip to Chicago could still hinge on a quarterback decision that is not fully settled yet. Bears coach Ben Johnson said Caleb Williams is continuing to progress as he works back from the hamstring injury that has kept him out the past three games, and Atlanta is waiting to see whether the rookie is ready in time to change the complexion of the matchup.
If Williams is not able to go, the Bears still have one more wrinkle to sort through before kickoff, with Johnson saying the team has not decided which backup would get the start. Chicago is coming off a loss to Green Bay, and Johnson pointed to the recent play of Tyson Bagent and Case Keenum, leaving the Falcons to prepare for a game plan that could look very different depending on who ends up under center. [Read more 🡒]