The Falcons have made their Week 1 quarterback call, and it comes with a betting ripple attached.
Atlanta is reportedly going with veteran Tua Tagovailoa against the Pittsburgh Steelers in the regular-season opener next Sunday, with Michael Penix Jr. still working his way back from the torn ACL he suffered last November. Penix wasn’t cleared for 11-on-11 work until Aug. 22, and the Falcons are clearly choosing caution over urgency with his return.
Tagovailoa’s preseason showing didn’t turn many heads, but Atlanta is leaning on his experience anyway. The former first-round pick gives the Falcons a steadier option for now, especially with Penix carrying a long injury history that stretches back to his college days.
That decision has nudged the Week 1 market, even if it hasn’t completely changed the outlook. Pittsburgh opened as a three-point favorite and has since moved to 3.5 points about a week before kickoff. Tagovailoa taking over may have pushed that number by half a point, though Atlanta is still -118 to cover.
The money is still leaning toward the Steelers. At DraftKings, 78 percent of the moneyline bets and 58 percent of the spread bets are on Pittsburgh. That tracks with a team that reached the playoffs in the 2025 season and enters with a more settled foundation, especially with Aaron Rodgers back at quarterback.
Tagovailoa’s recent body of work is part of why the market isn’t exactly rushing toward Atlanta. In the 2025 season, he was cut loose by the Miami Dolphins after throwing for 2,660 yards, 20 touchdowns and 15 interceptions while going 6-8 in 14 starts. He has completed a full 17-game season only once in his NFL career, which is why there’s a real chance Penix gets back into the mix early in the 2026 season.
The Falcons are priced at +13000 to win the Super Bowl, and their Week 1 number has ticked slightly now that the starting job is official. Atlanta is projected for 7.5 wins this season, with the UNDER at -140.
If Tagovailoa gets rolling quickly, the Falcons could still have a path in the NFC South. For now, though, the betting market is making its view pretty clear.
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Falcons Week 1 Quarterback Decision Just Raised A Bigger Offensive Question
The Falcons have settled their Week 1 quarterback spot, with Tua Tagovailoa earning the job over Michael Penix Jr. after a summer competition. He will open the season against the Pittsburgh Steelers, giving Atlanta a clear answer at the most scrutinized position on the roster as the team tries to get its offense pointed in the right direction.
But the decision also leaves a bigger question hanging over the group, especially with Atlanta set to keep four quarterbacks on the roster in Tagovailoa, Penix, Cooper Rush and Jack Strand. The depth chart now has a defined top spot, yet the way the Falcons chose to build around it suggests the quarterback room will remain one of the most closely watched parts of the team as the season gets underway. [Read more 🡒]
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The Falcons decision to open the 2026 season with just two running backs on the 53-man roster looked odd at first, especially with Tyler Goodson expected to be the No. 3 option. Instead, Atlanta kept Bijan Robinson and Brian Robinson Jr. active and pushed Goodson to the practice squad, a move tied directly to the teams choice to carry four quarterbacks on the roster as insurance.
For a team trying to balance depth across the roster, it was less about running back numbers than protecting itself at the most important spot on the field. Falcons executive Ian Cunningham made clear the setup is not fixed, either, saying the roster could change during the season depending on quarterback health and other needs, which leaves open the possibility that Atlantas backfield picture is only temporary. [Read more 🡒]
Falcons Still Have One Roster Debate Fans Cant Ignore
With the Falcons settling in around their 53-man roster for the upcoming season, the next phase is the part every front office has to navigate with patience: checking the practice squad market for help. There are always a few players around the league who slip through waivers, and for a team trying to squeeze every bit of value out of the bottom of the roster, that becomes a useful place to look.
Five names from other teams practice squads are already being floated as possible fits for Atlanta, each tied to a different need. Nothing is set, and that is what keeps the discussion alive, because the Falcons could still decide their best move is to wait, pounce later, or make a quiet addition that changes the depth chart in a hurry. [Read more 🡒]