Week 3 opens under the lights at Lambeau Field, where the Falcons and Packers meet on Thursday Night Football with Green Bay laying six at home. The number makes sense on paper, but neither team has exactly inspired confidence through two weeks.
The Packers have already given away a big lead against Minnesota in Week 1 and then needed overtime to get past the Jets in Week 2. Atlanta, meanwhile, comes in winless and has decided to give Michael Penix Jr. the start after Cooper Rush handled the first two games. That move alone changes the feel of this matchup.
Atlanta’s offense has been a mess to start 2026, finishing with the worst EPA/Play in the league over the first two weeks. Still, there’s a case for a reset here with Penix under center. The Falcons’ defense has carried more of the load than the offense has, ranking ninth in Opponent EPA per Play and fourth in Opponent Success Rate despite the injuries it’s dealing with.
Green Bay’s numbers aren’t exactly screaming contender, either. The defense has been average, while the offense has sputtered badly, sitting 28th in EPA per play and 32nd in success rate.
That’s even below Atlanta’s offense, which ranks 31st. So while the Packers are favored, this doesn’t look like a clean spot.
One angle worth watching is Bijan Robinson. He found the end zone in Week 1 and has already handled 48 touches across the first two games.
In Week 1, he posted 83 rushing yards, 90 receiving yards and a score, then followed with just 81 total yards in Week 2. With Atlanta expected to be more competitive here than it was against Carolina, Robinson should get another heavy workload, and he remains the likeliest Falcon to score on Thursday.
He scored 11 times last season and 15 times in 2024.
On the Green Bay side, Christian Watson has taken over as the clear top option in the passing game. Through two weeks, he has 10 catches on 19 targets for 188 yards and three touchdowns.
He has opened 2026 with six catches on eight targets and four catches on 11 targets, and his role could grow even more after Jayden Reed’s neck injury in Week 2. Watson also played nearly 90 percent of the snaps in Week 2, and he has one more target than Matthew Golden through two games.
Jordan Love hasn’t been especially sharp throwing the ball this season, completing less than 60 percent of his passes, but Watson’s usage makes him a strong look against an Atlanta defense that gave up five catches for 101 yards to Tetairoa McMillan and eight catches for 66 yards to Jalen Coker in Week 2.
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
In Other News...
Al Michaels Turned A Falcons Broadcast Into A Michael Penix Joke
Al Michaels had a brief but noticeable slip during Thursday nights Falcons-Packer matchup, and it landed in a place Atlanta fans know well: around Michael Penix Jr.s college path. While talking about the quarterback on the broadcast, Michaels mistakenly said Penix spent two years at Oregon after starting at Indiana, before quickly correcting himself and noting that Penix actually played at Washington instead.
The correction mattered because Washington is a rival of Oregon, and the mix-up did not go unnoticed. Fans immediately lit into the error on social media, turning a simple broadcast miss into another talking point around Penix, who has already been under a brighter spotlight as Atlantas quarterback situation continues to draw scrutiny. [Read more 🡒]
Falcons Fans Will Love How Stefanski Closed Out Green Bay
Kevin Stefanskis late decision against Green Bay fit the kind of aggressive edge Falcons fans have been waiting to see. With Atlanta sitting on a comfortable lead, he opted to go for two instead of settling for the extra point, pushing the margin to 21 and making the math even tougher on the Packers in the final stretch.
It was a fitting cap to a strong all-around afternoon for Atlanta, with Bijan Robinson powering the ground game for 194 yards and two touchdowns and Michael Penix Jr. adding 256 passing yards and a score. The choice also showed clear awareness of what Jordan Love could still theoretically do, but it left Green Bay needing a very specific sequence it could no longer realistically put together. [Read more 🡒]
Michael Penix Jr. Already Put Falcons Fans On Edge In Debut
Michael Penix Jr. stepped into the Falcons starting quarterback job in their 2026 season debut on Thursday night against the Packers, and the opening minutes gave Atlanta fans plenty to feel all at once. Penix was intercepted on the first drive, but the Falcons settled in quickly enough to answer Green Bays early touchdown pass from Jordan Love, with Bijan Robinson sparking the offense on a 55-yard run and later finding the end zone on the ground.
Atlantas response turned the mood in the building fast, especially once Penix connected with Austin Hooper for a touchdown pass and the Falcons pushed out to a 17-7 lead late in the second quarter. For a quarterback making his first start, the early turnover was the kind of jolt that can linger, but the way the Falcons steadied themselves around him suggested this debut was going to be watched closely all night. [Read more 🡒]