Week 5 brings the first bye week of the NFL season, with the Chiefs and Panthers off the board and 15 games left to attack against the spread. After four weeks, the league has already sorted itself into a few clear tiers, and that shows up all over this card.
A handful of matchups feel lopsided on paper. The Cowboys can score with anyone, but their defense has been a liability - dead last in several defensive metrics - and that makes it hard to trust them to win by margin even against an undrafted rookie quarterback.
In London, the Jaguars look like the more reliable side against an Eagles team that is dealing with injuries, retirements, and a late travel schedule. Miami has also fallen all the way to the bottom, and even with some Bengals wide receiver injuries, Cincinnati should be able to handle the Dolphins without much trouble.
Houston gets a boost with Nico Collins back in the mix, and that makes the Texans a much tougher team to deal with. That’s a rough spot for Cam Ward, who is still not looking like the franchise quarterback the Titans wanted. On the other side of the ledger, there’s reason to keep backing New England after some early bad luck and a bit of momentum last week against the Bills, especially with the Raiders’ inability to run the ball hanging over them.
There are a few games where the read is less about dominance and more about trust. Deshaun Watson has been solid this season, and in a bad matchup between two bad teams, the Browns are the side to take.
Green Bay also gets the nod over a Bears team starting a backup quarterback, with the Packers still worth believing in for now. Pittsburgh is in a strong scheduling spot, welcoming the Colts after their trip back from London while the Steelers come in off a mini BYE, and that sets up badly for Indianapolis.
Some of the picks come down to simple math. The Vikings’ lack of offense is going to catch up with them sooner or later.
The Giants have benefited from a lot of breaks to get where they are, but their defense has been poor and Jameis Winston isn’t the answer, especially with Jayden Daniels back for the Commanders. The Chargers haven’t looked sharp, but Denver is dealing with major injuries on defense and Bo Nix hasn’t met expectations, so Los Angeles at home has a chance to finally show something.
Detroit’s defense is shaky, but Arizona is still a bottom-three team, and the Lions’ offense alone should be enough to cover unless the spread gets to seven.
There are also a couple of true toss-ups. One game looks like a battle between the two best teams in the NFL, and in that kind of coin-flip, the points matter. Sunday night’s Falcons-Ravens matchup has a much clearer lean: Atlanta is not the same team it was in the first two weeks, the defense has climbed into the top 10, the offense has been the league’s best over the last two weeks, and with Lamar Jackson likely out, the Falcons have everything lined up at home.
Monday night brings another spot to fade Buffalo’s defense, which has been a bottom-five unit all season and already burned the Bills last week. That weakness has been the story, and it is the reason to go against them again.
Here’s how the Week 5 ATS board shakes out:
- Cowboys
- Jaguars
- Bengals
- Texans
- Patriots
- Browns
- Packers
- Steelers
- Vikings
- Commanders
- Chargers
- Lions
- side getting points in the coin-flip matchup
- Falcons
- against the Bills on Monday night
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