There’s a familiar kind of NFL optimism that hangs around until the first real wave of games starts smashing it to pieces. By the time Week 1 gets here, every team has a clean slate, every fan base can talk itself into a run, and then reality shows up fast.
For a few NFC clubs, that reality looks a lot less friendly in 2026 than it did a year ago. Here are the three teams that look almost certain to finish with more losses than they had in 2025.
The Seattle Seahawks are the easiest place to start. They dropped only three regular season games last year, and that kind of success is tough to repeat even when everything goes right.
Seattle does not have to fall apart for regression to show up; even one extra loss would do it. A 14-win season is simply hard to chase down twice in a row, and that’s the bar here.
The Seahawks still look like a team that should win at least 11 games, but getting back to 14 or more feels like a stretch. Recent history backs that up too: the Kansas City Chiefs went from 15 wins in 2024 to 6 in 2025, the Detroit Lions went from 15 to 9, and the Philadelphia Eagles went from 14 to 11.
In the NFL, repeating that kind of dominance is brutal.
The San Francisco 49ers land next, and the vibe around their offseason has been messy enough to raise real concern. Injuries have already become a storyline, including to WR Mike Evans, one of their top offseason acquisitions.
Evans has been dealing with injury issues throughout August, and while the 49ers have survived injury waves before, this season feels different. A 12-win season, which would mean only five losses, feels far-fetched.
This looks more like a 10-win team, maybe even a 9-win team. The division is loaded, the NFC is a grind, and several of San Francisco’s best players are either coming off injuries or getting older.
Maybe it’s just a feeling, but it’s a bad one for the 49ers.
At the top of the list is Atlanta, and this one feels the most certain. The Falcons went 8-9 last season, but this roster has the look of a team that could be fighting near the top of the draft order next spring.
The quarterback situation is a mess, and it would take something shocking for them to sort it out during the regular season. There’s a reason they’re the last team in the NFL to make any declaration about a Week 1 starter.
On defense, the loss of 2025 1st-round pick Jalon Walker for the season is a major blow to the front, and James Pearce Jr. is also suspended for 8 games after violating the league’s conduct policy. That’s a lot to absorb.
Atlanta does have a stellar trio of offensive weapons, which helps, but even that doesn’t make it easy to see them staying at or below last year’s loss total. The safer bet is that they finish with more than 9 losses in 2026.
In Other News...
Falcons QB Plan May Already Be Telling Fans Everything About Penix
The Falcons quarterback picture is already carrying more intrigue than most teams would want this early, and Michael Penix Jr. remains at the center of it. According to NFL Networks Cameron Wolfe, Atlanta intends to get a real look at Penix at some point so it can better evaluate him ahead of the 2027 NFL Draft, even if Tua Tagovailoa opens the season against the Steelers. For a team that has spent the offseason trying to settle its future under center, that plan says plenty about how seriously the Falcons are weighing their long-term options.
Penixs path back is also being handled with care after the ACL injury he suffered in 2025, which could shape how the early-season rotation unfolds. Atlanta has not decided who will start in 2026, and both Penix and Tagovailoa remain in the conversation, so the next few months may be less about one game than about how the organization maps out its quarterback timeline. [Read more 🡒]
Falcons Took A Risk Up Front They Could Regret Fast
The Falcons defensive front has been in flux, and the latest roster shuffle showed just how thin the margin can get. General manager Ian Cunningham said waiving Zach Harrison to make room for three waiver claims was a difficult decision, a reminder that Atlanta is trying to patch together depth while injuries and suspensions continue to hit the group up front.
Harrison did not stay away long, returning to the Falcons on the practice squad, where his presence still matters for a line trying to hold together through the turbulence. Even without a spot on the active roster, he gives Atlanta veteran leadership and another body to lean on, which makes the original move look less like a clean cut and more like a risk the team may have to manage all over again. [Read more 🡒]
Falcons Practice Squad Move May Be Hinting At Another O-Line Decision
With Kyle Hinton and Kam Dewberry both dealing with injuries, the Falcons added another body to the interior offensive line mix by signing Josh Thompson to the practice squad. Thompson, an undrafted free agent out of LSU, spent the summer with the Kansas City Chiefs and now steps into one of Atlantas remaining practice squad openings as the team tries to keep some depth around a position group that has already been tested.
The move is straightforward on its face, but it also naturally raises questions about what comes next for the Falcons up front. Practice squad additions are often about coverage and contingency, and with guard depth suddenly thin, this one feels like it could be tied to a short-term roster adjustment if the injuries linger. For now, though, Atlanta is simply making sure it has another interior lineman available while the picture sorts itself out. [Read more 🡒]