The Falcons’ run defense is walking into Week 10 with a problem they’ve already seen this season: once the cracks started showing, they didn’t go away.
Atlanta opened the year looking like one of the league’s toughest teams to run on. According to Field Yates, the Falcons allowed the fewest rushing yards per game in the NFL across Weeks 1-4.
But from Weeks 5-9, that flipped all the way around, and they’ve given up the most rushing yards per game in the league over that stretch. Bucky Irving and Derrick Henry are among the backs who took advantage, and Atlanta made the wrong kind of history against the Bucs.
A lot of those early numbers came against weaker ground games like the Packers and Saints, which makes the current reality look even harsher. Now the Falcons host the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 10, and the matchup points straight at Kenneth Walker III.
Walker has turned Kansas City’s offense into something even more dangerous. Ever since the reigning Super Bowl MVP left Seattle to sign with Kansas City, the Chiefs have leaned on him heavily, and the results have been obvious. He’s one of only two backs in the NFL with more rushing yards than Bijan Robinson, sitting at 872 while Robinson has 880.
The Chiefs are 6-2, and Walker has become the engine of what they do on offense. If Atlanta stacks the box, Patrick Mahomes can beat them through the air.
If the Falcons load up with extra defensive backs, Walker can punish them on the ground. That kind of balance is what makes Kansas City so hard to handle.
Walker’s style only adds to the headache. He’s a tough, elusive runner with enough power to finish plays, and Stat Rankings has him tied with Jahmyr Gibbs for the league lead with 57 missed tackles forced. He’s been making defenders miss like that since his Michigan State days, and nothing about this season suggests that part of his game has changed.
He backed that up in Week 9 against the Jets, when he posted his fifth 100-yard rushing game of the season and scored three touchdowns, including one on the ground and two through the air. With that kind of production, it would be a surprise if he doesn’t go over 100 yards again in Week 10.
Mahomes is set to play after injuring his elbow against the Jets, but the source of Kansas City’s comfort in this one is clear: he’s expected to be less than 100% and in pain, which only increases the likelihood that the Chiefs lean on Walker to carry the offense. Jaylen Warren is the only running back averaging more yards per carry, and Walker should have every chance to keep rolling.
Atlanta does have some capable run defenders, including LaCale London, but this is a heavy lift for a unit that has already shown it can be worn down. Against one of the best backs in the league, that’s a dangerous place to be.
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