The Falcons are staring at a draft slot that says as much about the season as any box score. Right now, Atlanta is projected to pick No. 13 in the 2027 NFL Draft, and that kind of spot usually comes with a record in the 7-10 or 8-9 range. That’s the kind of middle ground the Falcons are trying to avoid, but Sunday’s loss in Tampa pushed them deeper into it.
Atlanta had a shot to grab first place in the NFC South and leave the Buccaneers buried at 2-6. Instead, the Falcons came out of the weekend at 3-5, tied with Tampa Bay and trailing the Carolina Panthers, who are 3-4. Both division rivals own the head-to-head tiebreaker over Atlanta, which only makes the current hole feel a little deeper.
There is at least one bright spot in the bigger picture: the Falcons are set up with a full stash of draft picks after going without a first-rounder in 2026. New general manager Ian Cunningham has already gotten encouraging production from his first class, especially from linebackers Kendal Daniels and Harold Perkins Jr., who were taken in the fourth and sixth rounds.
Cornerback Avieon Terrell, the team’s first pick, has battled injuries but has been effective when he’s on the field. Wide receiver Zachariah Branch has flashed, while sixth-round defensive tackle Anterio Thompson was lost to a medical condition and seventh-round offensive tackle Ethan Onianwa has been getting special teams reps.
The biggest question hanging over the offseason is Michael Penix Jr. The Falcons still haven’t settled the long-term quarterback issue, and Penix is using this season to try to prove he can be the answer. Even after the mess in Tampa, he has played well enough that Atlanta can look elsewhere in the first round - but only if he bounces back from a four-interception game and stays healthy for 15 games.
If quarterback is off the board, offensive tackle jumps to the top of the need list. Jake Matthews is 34, and this season has shown some signs that Father Time is starting to show up. On the other side, Jawaan Taylor is on a one-year deal and headed for free agency after the season.
Cornerback is right there behind it. The Falcons used the No. 48 pick on Terrell, but he’s the first Day 1 or Day 2 corner Atlanta has drafted since his brother went in the first round in 2020. Injuries have forced Mike Hughes into a bigger role than ideal, and he profiles more as a No. 3 or No. 4 corner than a true lead option.
Nickel is another problem area. Billy Bowman Jr. was drafted for that spot in 2025, but he has only been available for 10 of the Falcons’ 25 games since arriving as a fourth-round pick out of Oklahoma. Atlanta has had to patch together the secondary week after week, and the depth chart still needs more help.
Wide receiver rounds out the top three needs. Drake London is locked in as the No. 1 target.
Jahan Dotson was brought in as a free agent this offseason and fits more naturally as a slot or No. 3 receiver, which matches the way he’s being paid. Branch adds some juice, but the Falcons still need more size, explosiveness and depth at the position.
That’s why recent mock drafts keep circling offensive tackle. On SI draft analyst Justin Melo has Atlanta taking Lance Heard from the surprising No. 7 Kentucky Wildcats.
"Atlanta Falcons offensive line coach Bill Callahan will have a say if the organization drafts an offensive tackle. He'll love Kentucky's Lance Heard, who fits his mold from a size and physicality perspective. This is all about getting a Jake Matthews replacement," Melo wrote On SI Draft.
Tankathon has the Falcons going another direction at tackle with Texas’ Trevor Goosby. He’s out for the rest of the 2026 season after surgery to repair a torn left patellar tendon, and his stock has slipped after he was viewed as a top-10 prospect earlier in the year.
The quarterback conversation still lingers in the background, though. If Atlanta ends up at No. 13, the front office has to ask two uncomfortable questions: whether Penix has truly established himself as the franchise guy, and whether there’s a quarterback worth taking without forcing the issue. The Falcons have lived through the consequences of both good and bad quarterback play, and a 7-10 finish would probably point to Penix struggling down the stretch.
There’s also the possibility that the class doesn’t line up cleanly for Atlanta. Melo has Arch Manning going to the Arizona Cardinals at No. 12, though there’s a better-than-average chance he stays in college. The Cleveland Browns then take Trinidad Chambliss out of Ole Miss at No. 16, making him the last quarterback off the board in the first round.
That leaves the Falcons in a tricky spot if they want a quarterback but don’t love the value. It’s the kind of draft purgatory they’d rather avoid.
The cleaner path is for Penix to finish strong and push Atlanta into the late teens or early 20s, where the board could open up. In Melo’s mock, Goosby is still available at No.
- Utah tackle Zereoue goes to the Panthers at No. 19, while cornerbacks Ellis Robinson IV of Georgia and Kelley Jones of Mississippi State come off the board to the Cowboys and Bengals at No. 20 and No.
For now, Sunday’s game against the Cincinnati Bengals looms as a turning point. A win would move the Falcons to 4-5 and keep them squarely in the NFC South race. A loss would drop them to 3-6, and suddenly those mock drafts would start looking a lot more relevant.
In Other News...
Falcons Head To Madrid With New Concerns And A Possible Boost
The Falcons are heading into their trip to Madrid still trying to shake off a strange 16-0 loss to Tampa Bay, one that stood out even by the standards of an off day. Atlanta did not allow a completed pass and still came away empty, a reminder that the defense did enough in one area but the offense never found a way to turn the game into anything manageable.
Kevin Stefanski said the injury picture is not getting cleaner before the matchup with Cincinnati, with Samson Ebukam and Zachariah Branch both unavailable because of hamstring issues. There is at least one potential lift on the horizon, though, as James Pearce Jr. is back in the conversation after completing an eight-game suspension, giving Atlanta a possible reinforcement as it tries to steady itself on an international stage. [Read more 🡒]
Falcons Just Got Outplayed In The Exact Way They Wanted To Win
Rainy conditions in Week 8 turned into a ground-game test, and it was Tampa Bay that controlled it. The Buccaneers leaned hard on the run and came away with a 16-0 win, while Atlanta never found the same kind of rhythm on the ground despite having Bijan Robinson in the backfield. It was the sort of game the Falcons usually want to make their own, only this time they were the ones getting pushed around in it.
The matchup carried a little extra edge because Zac Robinson was on the other sideline as Tampa Bays offensive coordinator, facing Atlanta for the first time since leaving. Instead of the Falcons dictating terms with their rushing attack, the Buccaneers were the more effective and more committed team in that phase, which only sharpened the frustration for Atlanta. For a club built to lean on the run, getting outplayed there is the kind of result that lingers. [Read more 🡒]
Falcons Just Got A Huge Pass Rush Boost At The Right Time
The Falcons got a timely lift for a pass rush that could use it, reinstating edge rusher James Pearce Jr. and making him eligible to rejoin the mix for their Week 9 matchup against the Bengals. Pearce led Atlanta in sacks last season, and his return gives the defense a proven edge presence at a point in the schedule when pressure off the corner can change the tone of a game.
To clear the way, Atlanta moved on from defensive lineman Jared Ivey and defensive end Drake Jackson, a reminder that roster churn is part of the cost of getting healthier. The bigger question now is how quickly Pearce can slide back into the rotation and whether the Falcons can turn that added pressure into the kind of disruption they have been looking for all season. [Read more 🡒]