The Falcons took a cheap swing on Tua Tagovailoa this offseason, bringing him in on a one-year deal for the veteran minimum after Miami let him go. At the time, it was an easy move to understand. Michael Penix Jr. was still working back from injury, and Atlanta needed someone who could hold down the job in the meantime.
Now Tagovailoa is the likely starter, but that doesn’t mean the setup is encouraging. ESPN’s Dan Graziano sees the “most likely” version of this season as one that turns into a letdown for Atlanta.
“Most likely outcome: Tagovailoa starts the season but struggles with health and/or performance, and the Falcons turn to Penix once he is healthy to continue their assessment of whether he can be their long-term answer,” Graziano writes.
That forecast lines up with the direction this quarterback situation appears to be heading. Tagovailoa is trending toward the opening job, but his grip on it may not last long if his camp and preseason form carry over. Once Penix is healthy, the odds are that he gets his turn, unless Tagovailoa somehow forces the issue with strong play.
The bigger upside still belongs to Penix, especially since he already has some familiarity with the playmakers in this offense. Tagovailoa, meanwhile, is coming off a rough season in Miami. He finished with 2,660 passing yards, 20 touchdowns, a 67.7 completion percentage, 15 interceptions, an 88.5 passer rating and a 7.25% sack rate.
Penix wasn’t much better statistically, but he does at least carry the possibility of a rebound as a 26-year-old 2024 first-round pick entering his third NFL season.
So while Graziano’s take sounds harsh, it also feels like the likeliest path. Tagovailoa starts, the results disappoint, and Penix gets his shot before long. After that, Atlanta’s quarterback picture beyond this season is wide open, with a 2027 rookie quarterback or a major free-agent addition among the possibilities once 2026 is over.
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Biermann Jr. was arraigned on Aug. 17, 2026, with attorney Jason Sheffield listed as his representative. For Falcons fans who remember Kroy Biermann as a steady defensive presence during his Atlanta years, the case is a stark and painful reminder of how quickly an athletes post-career life can be overshadowed by personal turmoil around him. [Read more 🡒]