The Atlanta Falcons are only two weeks into training camp, but the biggest question hanging over Flowery Branch is the one that always matters most: who’s going to play quarterback in Week 1?
Michael Penix Jr. still has not been cleared for 11v11 work because of concern that a pass rusher could land on his healing knee. Even so, he has been moving without discomfort since the Falcons began OTAs in June, and he has looked sharp once camp opened.
Tua Tagovailoa, meanwhile, has done even less in practice after dealing with back tightness the week before camp started.
That uncertainty is enough to make national predictions look shaky before the season even begins, and Sports Illustrated’s Connor Orr landed on the pessimistic side when he projected the Falcons at 6-11. Orr, who annually predicts every game for every team, got the Falcons’ overall mark right last season at 9-8, even if the individual game calls were a mess. Atlanta’s 2024 run was all over the place: a win in Minnesota, victories over Washington and Buffalo, and then a blowout loss to Carolina across a four-game stretch.
This time, Orr sees a tougher road and a slow start. He has Atlanta opening 1-4, reaching the bye at 3-7, and splitting 3-3 in the NFC South. He also has the Falcons stumbling to 3-9 before finishing 3-2 down the stretch, a late push that would only help them hurt their draft position and move them toward the quarterback-heavy 2027 class.
“As we get closer to game time without Michael Penix Jr. participating in team drills, and Tua Tagovailoa inching toward a Week 1 start carrying his own troubling injury history, one has to wonder what happened to the rest of the plan,” Orr wrote on Sports Illustrated.
He expanded on the concern by pointing to both quarterbacks’ situations. “Penix has not yet played a full season’s worth of NFL games (this is not all due to injury) and he is entering Year 3.
Tagovailoa is migrating from one of the most quarterback-friendly offenses in recent NFL history to a system that struggled to open its arms for Baker Mayfield or Deshaun Watson in Cleveland. Outside of Mayfield’s 11-5 campaign in 2020, the highest quarterback rating by a QB with multiple starts during Stefanski’s run with the Browns was held by Joe Flacco and Case Keenum.”
Orr’s skepticism also extends to Atlanta’s defense, even after the team posted a franchise-record 57 sacks last season. He views that number more as a one-year spike than a new identity for the Falcons.
“Atlanta comes into this season without a world-beating defensive front and an entire unit that, while extremely well-coached and having skyrocketed as a pass-rushing unit last year, does not give me enough confidence to lean Atlanta in coin-flip games. I do have Stefanski winning the return to Cleveland, though,” Orr concluded.
Still, there are reasons to think Atlanta’s front can force people to rethink the usual script. Defensive tackle Brandon Dorlus led all NFC interior linemen with 8.5 sacks last year, a production line that has not gotten nearly enough attention around the league.
James Pearce Jr. is being written off for the season, and Jalon Walker is being largely ignored. Dorlus, at 25, is the oldest of the three, and their combined 24.5 sacks were more than the entire team had in both 2021 and 2022.
That’s why the Falcons feel like one of the league’s biggest wild cards. If the quarterback situation settles and the offense gets competent play, the ceiling is real. In a wide-open NFC South, 12 wins is there for the taking.
If not, Atlanta could be looking toward the top of next year’s draft much earlier than it wants.
In Other News...
Xavier Watts Just Made The Falcons Face A Tough Jessie Bates Call
Xavier Watts has given the Falcons something they did not necessarily expect to be weighing this early: a young safety making a real case for a larger role in the secondary. The rookie impressed enough last season to finish with five interceptions and land among the Defensive Rookie of the Year finalists, and his rapid rise has only sharpened the spotlight on a defense that already had Jessie Bates III as one of its defining pieces.
Bates remains the veteran anchor and a team captain, but Watts emergence adds a layer of complexity to what comes next for Atlanta. The Falcons have to decide how they want to manage the safety spot as Bates heads into a contract year, with Watts play suggesting the future may already be arriving faster than expected. [Read more 🡒]
Falcons Are Leaning On A Veteran As James Pearce Trouble Looms
James Pearce Jr.s February arrest has left the Falcons planning for more than one version of their pass rush picture, and that reality has made their offseason additions matter even more. Atlanta did not sit back and wait on the league to sort things out, instead signing multiple pass-rushers in free agency and giving itself some insulation if the situation around Pearce eventually leads to a suspension.
Samson Ebukam, brought in on a one-year deal, is the veteran most positioned to help steady that spot. His history with defensive line coach Nate Ollie gives the Falcons some familiarity to lean on, and his experience has been a useful presence in camp as Atlanta tries to strengthen a front that needs dependable production. Whether Pearce is available or not, Ebukam has become part of the teams short-term answer up front. [Read more 🡒]
Falcons Quarterback Battle Is Already Leaving Week 1 In Doubt
Atlantas quarterback competition has barely gotten off the ground in training camp, and the early rhythm of the battle has already been interrupted. Tua Tagovailoa is working his way back into full team activities while Michael Penix Jr. continues to recover from ACL surgery, leaving the Falcons without the clean, head-to-head look they hoped to get at this stage.
The result has been a lot of waiting and a little improvisation, with veteran Cooper Rush brought in to take part in drills while the others ease back. Penix still has a stretch to go before he is ready for full practice, and Tagovailoas return is being managed carefully, which means the Week 1 picture is still far from settled. [Read more 🡒]