The Packers get their first home game of the season on Thursday night, and they’ll try to turn a messy 1-1 start into something cleaner against an Atlanta team still hunting its first win. The Falcons come in at 0-2, but they’re at least getting a major change at quarterback: Michael Penix Jr. is set to return after Cooper Rush started the first two games.
Green Bay’s opening two weeks have been a strange mix. The Packers dropped that wild Week 1 game to the Minnesota Vikings, then needed overtime to get past the New York Jets in Week 2 in a win that didn’t exactly inspire a parade. Injuries are piling up, too, but this is still a chance to settle in at home and bank a victory.
Atlanta has been far less functional. The Falcons have scored just 16 points through two weeks and have already coughed it up seven times.
They rank fourth-to-last in offensive success rate and last in EPA per play, according to Tru Media. Rush’s two starts did almost nothing to move the needle, and the offense looked stuck in neutral from the jump.
Now Penix gets the wheel, though there’s still plenty of uncertainty around what he’ll look like after his latest knee surgery. He has been cleared to play and has been fully practicing for a while, but his career numbers suggest a quarterback with some clear strengths and some real warts. In 14 career appearances, Penix is 4-8 as a starter, with a 59.6% completion rate, 7.2 yards per attempt, 12 touchdown passes and six interceptions.
The accuracy issues are impossible to ignore. Among quarterbacks with 300 or more passes since Penix entered the league, he ranks 39th in completion rate and 39th in off-target throw rate, per TruMedia.
At the same time, he’s been willing to attack downfield, ranking fourth in average depth of throw and 10th in explosives per dropback. He also hasn’t taken many sacks, with a 4.3% sack rate.
The flip side: since 2024, he has the league’s second-highest dropped interception rate at 53.8%.
That creates an interesting challenge for a Green Bay defense that has allowed only 3.9 yards per play so far. But that number comes with a couple of caveats. The Packers saw Carson Wentz off the bench in Week 1 and then dealt with the Jets in a sloppy, rainy Week 2 game, so the early defensive results are hard to read with complete confidence.
On the other side, the Packers’ offense has its own issues to sort through, and the injury list is long. Jayden Reed, Zach Bako-Bewele and Aaron Banks are out, while Savion Williams is on injured reserve and Luke Musgrave is on the physically unable to perform list. Josh Jacobs remains on the commissioner's exempt list.
Atlanta is dealing with its own absences. A.J.
Terrell is on injured reserve, Samson Ebukam is out, Billy Bowman Jr. is questionable after missing the first two games, and Jalon Walker and Da'Shawn Hand are already on injured reserve. James Pearce Jr. is suspended.
Even with all that uncertainty, the basic numbers point to two offenses that have not been nearly good enough. Green Bay ranks 17th in yards, 18th in points and 27th in TruMedia’s version of EPA per play, tied with the Browns and Buccaneers. Atlanta is 12th in yards allowed, but 25th in points allowed, and its seventh-place EPA per play ranking is propped up by the Steelers game after the Panthers ripped through them.
The Packers have also struggled badly on the ground without Jacobs. MarShawn Lloyd, Chris Brooks and Kaleb Johnson haven’t given the offense much of anything, and the line has looked disjointed. Green Bay is averaging just 3.3 yards per carry.
Through the air, though, there’s at least a path for the Packers if Jordan Love gets time. Christian Watson, Matthew Golden and Tucker Kraft give Green Bay enough receiving talent to stress a defense.
The catch is Atlanta’s pass rush, which has been surprisingly effective so far and ranks third in pressure rate. If that holds, the Falcons could make life difficult.
Still, the bigger edge appears to belong to Green Bay. Atlanta’s offense has been a wreck, and while Penix should be an upgrade over Rush, the Falcons’ defensive injuries make it hard to trust them to control the game. The Packers have issues of their own, but they should have enough to handle this one.
In Other News...
Bijan Robinson Suddenly Has A Rare Falcons Milestone In Reach
Bijan Robinsons name has already become central to the Falcons offense, and now it sits next to a piece of team history that would be unusual even by Atlanta standards. Amid a run of recent NFL milestones around the league, Robinson has given the Falcons something more immediate to watch in Week 3: the possibility of a running back reaching a franchise mark that has been on the books for years.
It is the kind of threshold that says as much about how the offense is using him as it does about Robinsons own versatility. For Atlanta, the larger point is not just that he is piling up touches, but that he is being put in position to leave a mark in a category not often associated with backs. The record is there, the opportunity is there, and now the Falcons have one more reason to pay close attention when the ball gets near the goal line. [Read more 🡒]
Drake Londons Frustration Puts Falcons Quarterback Decision Under A Spotlight
Drake Londons body language told the story during a recent Falcons game, when the receiver was seen yelling and pointing on the sideline as Atlanta struggled to find a rhythm on offense. It has not been the start London or the Falcons wanted, with the third-year pass catcher working through two games alongside backup quarterbacks and producing 6 receptions for 80 yards.
Michael Penix Jr. looms over the conversation because the pairing has already shown real promise when given time together. In 14 games with Penix, London has piled up 91 catches for 1,286 yards and 9 touchdowns, a track record that makes the quarterback decision feel even more important as Atlanta tries to stabilize its passing game and keep one of its top weapons engaged. [Read more 🡒]
Falcons Face An Ugly Reality Entering Packers Matchup
The Falcons head into their Week 3 trip to Green Bay already carrying the kind of concerns that can make a road game feel even longer. The Packers bring the cleaner roster and the steadier quarterback situation, while Atlanta is still trying to find reliable play under center and across the board, two issues that have already shaped the early part of the 2026 season.
For Atlanta, the matchup is less about matching the Packers punch for punch and more about avoiding another lopsided afternoon that deepens the pressure around the team. Green Bay is being forecast to handle this one comfortably, which leaves the Falcons with an ugly reality in front of them and a chance to show some progress in a spot where the margin for error looks thin. [Read more 🡒]